BIDEN. By retaining the majority in the Senate, the Democrats would give themselves some air for the last two years of Joe Biden’s mandate. But these Midterms 2022 are still a setback for the White House.
Joe Biden will certainly not be able to speak of victory, but the Democrats can boast of having limited the damage: the midterms of 2022 should lead to a change of majority in the House of Representatives, but the battle for the Senate remains very open. It is likely that the Democrats will retain control of the legislature, which would already be cause for celebration. This would allow the American president to protect himself from any Republican legislative initiative, which would put a stop to several political projects. A few crucial results of these midterm elections have yet to be determined by the ongoing count. To follow these results, go to our big live from the Midterms 2022.
The midterm elections in the United States or midterms are akin to a referendum on the policy and action of Joe Biden after two years in power. Unfortunately for the Head of State, the balance sheet is not brilliant with inflation of more than 8% over one year which hits the Americans and numerous blunders or absences which cast doubt on the reliability of the almost octogenarian president. The midterms vote takes the form of a sanction vote since “Joe Biden is considered “responsible” for what is happening in the country, at the economic level”, underlines moreover Marin Fortin-Bouthot, researcher and coordinator of the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Canada at Internet user. However, the tenant of the White House will have even less opportunity to bring his reforms in the event of defeat at the polls on Tuesday. Joe Biden has tried to mobilize the Democratic electorate and women by defending body and soul the right to abortion, even if it means forgetting the economic subjects, however the primary concern of citizens. Will these choices combined in its balance sheet deprive the Democratic Party of victory in the midterms?
Joe Biden already unpopular
If he is the president to have won the most votes from voters in the history of the presidential election (more than 81 million – Obama had obtained 69 in 2008 and 65 in 2012, 2e and 3e highest totals, Trump having tallied just under 63), Joe Biden has lost popularity in recent months, now with 42% favorable opinions. But to what does Joe Biden owe his tumble in public opinion? Since his arrival at the White House, “his situation has only deteriorated” summarizes, with Internet user, Marie-Christine Bonzom, former French journalist in the United States, in charge of monitoring the presidency. Between the Covid crisis and the migration crisis in Mexico followed by the war in Ukraine, Joe Biden tried to manage, at the same time, several hot issues, without managing to resolve them, before deciding in favor of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. A departure which took place in total chaos, an attack having been perpetrated at Kabul airport, killing 13 American soldiers. A pivotal episode in the beginning of Joe Biden’s mandate: since that day, the 79-year-old man must govern a country with a majority of unfavorable opinions, like Obama and Trump before him.
Joe Biden eclipsed by Barack Obama during the 2022 midterms?
Given his low popularity, Joe Biden thought he was doing the right thing by staying away from the midterms election campaign. The American president only appeared in meetings in mid-October and sometimes kept his distance from the candidates, even depriving himself of trips to four states that were nevertheless key to the victory of the Democrats. But if the head of state wanted to be discreet, the campaign needed a leader and it was Barack Obama that the American left appealed to. The ease and oratorical talent of the former head of state breathed new life into the campaign. Joe Biden, however, may have suffered from the comparison with the liveliness and passion of Barack Obama’s speeches. In recent months, despite his many trips, the American president has seemed to lock himself in a “bubble” disconnected from the daily concerns of Americans in the words of his Democratic predecessor.
An electoral strategy error for Joe Biden?
The midterms campaign was not only played on personalities but also on social issues. Joe Biden and all the Democratic candidates took on the burning issue of abortion, which was undermined by the Republican justices of the US Supreme Court who overturned the constitutional right to abortion, on June 24 2022. Faced with the anger and revolt provoked by the legal decision, the Democratic angle of attack was all found: defending abortion and promising to “engrave in stone Roe v. Wade (the name of the judgment guaranteeing access to abortion, editor’s note) once and for all” while denouncing the policy of the Republicans.
But by focusing almost exclusively on abortion, haven’t Joe Biden and the Democrats missed the election? The answer is “yes” according to US researcher and specialist Marin Fortin-Bouthot. Notably because during the campaign, economic issues related to purchasing power, the price of gasoline and more generally inflation, which rose by 8.2% over one year in September, took over. “Abortion and social issues are important issues, but the economic issue is central because all Americans are subject to the price of gasoline. Many of them are tight in their finances. It is a more concrete question. We have the impression that, on the one hand, the Republicans highlight the economic issues and the Democrats the social issues. This strategy has run out of steam”, analyzes the researcher. The institute PewResearch confirms that economic issues are the priorities of Americans at 79% when the right to abortion, which has been strongly mobilized, is now ninth in the order of concerns with 56% of voters who say they attach importance to it.
Joe Biden, US presidential candidate in 2024?
As he prepares to celebrate his 80th birthday on November 20, Joe Biden spoke on October 22 of his “intention” to be a candidate for a new presidential term in 2024. A decision that has not yet been officially taken. but on which Joe Biden already has a precise idea and gives himself time for confirmation. The American president, who already holds the record for the oldest American head of state, assures that he has the support of his wife to run for a second term: “My wife thinks that we are doing something very important and that I shouldn’t turn away from it,” he told the channel. MSNBC October 22. But more than the support of his wife, it is the health of Joe Biden which raises questions about his possible candidacy in two years.
If the Democrat confirms his intention to run in 2024, there is a good chance that he will meet a former opponent in the person of Donald Trump who has also mentioned his “very likely” candidacy. Note that before embarking on the presidential race, Joe Biden will again have to go through the Democratic primaries.
What is Joe Biden’s health?
Joe Biden calls himself the “blunder machine” and if several errors of attention and lapses have several times won smiles, in recent months the confusion and absences of the American president are worrying. The man will celebrate his 80th birthday on November 20 and the years are visible in his behavior but at the start of the school year the Democrats assured on CBS “There’s nothing I couldn’t do before that I can’t do now, whether physically, mentally or otherwise.” Yet more than 60% of Americans consider that their president is too old to assume his functions according to an I&I TIPP study cited by the Parisianthus joining a part of the Democrats.
Two recent events have revived questions about Joe Biden’s mental health: the arrest of an elected official who died a month earlier during a speech on October 28 and the confusion between the war in Ukraine and that in Iraq repeated in early November. . These absences also occur in the private context since, as revealed by the journalist Benny Johnson, Joe Biden was momentarily lost in the White House gardens at the end of October, not knowing where he was. All these episodes reflect the beginning of senile dementia for some voters and several elected Republicans, but others defend the president. Bloomberg commentator Jonathan Bernstein was particularly annoyed by remarks about possible neurocognitive disorders: “You have to stop denigrating your mental abilities”. Franco-American political scientist Nicole Bacharan, interviewed about RTL October 28 is of the same opinion: “The fact that he is an aging and tired man, that worries everyone, from there to say that he is senile and that he no longer controls his thoughts, I think that all the same , we do not have enough elements to say.