The Americans renew this Tuesday, November 8 the Chamber of Deputies, a third of the Senate and many local positions. Will Joe Biden lose the narrow majority he holds in both Houses and struggle to implement his program for the next two years? All eyes are on key states, where Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck. Millions of dollars, for example, have been spent in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona.
It’s the most expensive campaign of 2022. In Pennsylvania, an often undecided Midwestern state that Joe Biden rocked in 2020, the race to follow is a senatorial. On the Democratic side, John Fetterman campaigns for the legalization of cannabis or the development of trade unions. Victim of a stroke which diminished him, he faces Mehmet Oz, a star surgeon of TV, friend of Donald Trump. ” Like the former president, he had his TV show. He is well known for that, even if the medicine he offers is not necessarily the one we practice notes Nicolle Herzog, associate professor at the University of Carolina. ” During the primaries, he presented himself as very aligned with Trump. Now he must soften his image to please all of Pennsylvania. He tries to play both sides: he is very extremist and at the same time moderate. But a few sentences escaped him. For example, he said that “abortion would be a choice between women, doctors and local political leaders” “.
This senator’s seat alone could decide the control of the United States Senate. Today the Upper House is exactly divided, 50-50, between the two parties. A single position won by the Republicans would be enough to deprive the Democrats of their very narrow majority. And without a majority, difficult to apply a program. ” When one part of the government is managed by one party and the other by another party, there is a risk of clashes over the budget “, notes Nicolle Herzog. ” In case of shutdown, people who work for the government are not paid. At a time when we are experiencing very high inflation, a “government shutdown”, like in 2013 or 2019, would be very frowned upon by the population “.
Traditionally, these midterm elections turn into a referendum on the president in power. According to the academic, Joe Biden is currently trying, to limit damage, to convey ” the idea that this election revolves around the question of democracy”.
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Georgia: a purple state in an ocean of red states”
For the Senate, the duels are also very close in Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. Two years ago, this southern state offered victory to Joe Biden, within a few thousand votes, as well as two Democratic senator positions. ” A suprise “, insists Françoise Coste, professor at the University Toulouse Jean Jaurès. “ The American South is a sea of conservative red states. Except Georgia which, since the Obama years, has been becoming a purple state. Those two senatorships gave the Democrats the majority they have today in the Senate. Everything Biden has been able to get through Congress since 2020 is thanks to these two positions in Georgia ».
One of these two seats is put into play on Tuesday. Outgoing Senator Raphael Warnock, faces another African-American candidate, former football star Herschel Walker. ” In any case, there will be a black senator in Congress. There is few of it. Symbolically, it’s important, especially in a southern state,” comments Françoise Coste. ” Despite everything, Herschel Walker is not a great political intellectual and the campaign has been affected by several scandals “.
The battle for the post of governor is also particularly followed in Georgia. The very conservative Brian Kemp clings to his seat against the Democrat Stacey Abramsnarrowly beaten four years ago.
“The main issue is not the control of Congress”, analysis by Françoise Coste
When the shadow of the 2020 presidential election hangs over Arizona
Beyond these highly publicized races, these elections will also allow Americans to elect all their local representatives: representatives and senators in the local Congress, sheriffs or even members of the boards of directors of schools. The seat of Secretary of Statea primarily administrative position that was not in the spotlight, has become a battleground in 2022. “In this election cycle, there has been a Republican effort to take control of this function. In Arizona, the Secretary of State is the Chief Electoral Officer. His office will, for example, certify the voting machines, as well as the candidates and the referendum questions put to the ballot. Above all, it is he who will certify the results of the elections,” details Victor Bardou-Bourgeois, researcher in residence at the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, in Canada.
The battle is particularly important in pivotal states, like Arizona, where Donald Trump supporters disputed the results of the 2020 election. In Arizona, we are almost replaying the election: a former Democratic presidential organizer, Adrian Fontes, faces Republican Mark Finchem, elected to the Arizona House of Representatives and member of a far-right militia. The latter was dubbed by Donald Trump. ” He’s a notorious election denier, he claims the election was stolen and that the Arizona legislature hasn’t done enough in 2020 to help the former president win over the state’s top voters “, explains Victor Bardou-Bourgeois. “The person who will occupy this position can complicate the exercise of the right to vote by imposing restrictions on postal voting. It can also decide on what criteria the electoral lists will be purged. Most worryingly, he could also cast doubt on the integrity of the election by refusing to certify the vote quickly. “.
What is at stake today is therefore also the neutrality of the electoral administration in this pivotal state, where the vote is generally close. This will have consequences for the next deadline: the presidential election of 2024.
Anti-democratic discourse, an antecedent phenomenon in the Trump era according to Victor Bardou-Bourgeois