The world is missing climate targets – but there is hope

The planet is getting warmer while the world is busy with other concerns.

A bad atmosphere is expected in the negotiation rooms at the COP27 climate meeting – but there are also glimmers of light.

Despite fighting and bickering over wording until the very end, the world’s countries managed to show a united front at COP26 in Glasgow a year ago around the need for a higher gear in climate work. Progress was made on emission reduction plans and it was promised to come back with updated and more ambitious climate plans already this year.

Since then, a lot has gone wrong in the world. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has deepened geopolitical tensions and contributed to a global energy and food crisis that, along with inflation, stole the world’s attention. In addition, climate change reminds us of droughts, heat waves and a “monsoon on steroids” that submerged parts of Pakistan.

As a tearful chairman closed the meeting in Glasgow, he noted that the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees was still alive – but with a faint pulse.

Now Egypt has taken over the chairman’s baton and this year’s climate summit has begun in Sharm el-Sheikh. Here is a summary of what has happened since the last time.

Time is running out for the climate goals

There is no longer any credible way forward to reach the 1.5 degree target. This is stated by the UN environmental program Unep, which has investigated the gap between the countries’ plans for emission reductions and what science says is needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping the temperature rise to well below 2 degrees, preferably 1.5 degrees.

The world has already warmed by almost 1.2 degrees, compared to pre-industrial times, and current climate plans, according to Unep, point to a warming of around 2.4-2.6 degrees by the end of the century, assuming all commitments are implemented. To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the next eight years must deliver emission reductions on an unprecedented scale, which, according to Unep, requires a system-wide transition.

Despite the promise in Glasgow, only about 20 countries have submitted new or updated plans for the meeting in Egypt. With the countries’ current commitments, emissions will increase by 10.6 percent by 2030, compared to 2010, according to the UN Climate Secretariat.

The wallets need to be opened further

In Copenhagen in 2009, rich countries pledged to contribute $100 billion a year until 2025 to finance climate change in poorer countries. However, it is considered to be far from the amount that is really needed and has still not been met, which adds to the mistrust and the bad atmosphere in the negotiation rooms.

Egypt has also promised to shine a spotlight on a more controversial issue in the negotiations: the demand by low-income countries for compensation for losses and damages arising from climate change already now. Rich countries have long resisted for fear of having to admit formal responsibility for climate change due to their emissions and thus face endless compensation claims.

The Paris Agreement has a role to play

Emissions of greenhouse gases are still increasing and the effects of climate change are already felt around the world. But there is still some progress to speak of.

Before Paris, the world was heading for global warming of 4.5 degrees by the end of the century, compared to pre-industrial times.

When the countries signed the Paris Agreement, it was clear that the goals were insufficient, but the idea is that the ambitions should increase gradually – even if it seems to be happening in small steps at the moment. But the world has, after all, better conditions to succeed, thanks, among other things, to the fact that the costs of solar and wind power and batteries have fallen dramatically.

Wind in the sails for renewables

The world’s second largest emitter (after China) comes to COP27 having approved a reform package that will see nearly $400 billion invested in clean energy initiatives and a transition away from fossil fuels. It is expected that the US’s carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 1 billion tons annually by the end of the decade, and the hope is that more countries will be inspired by how the American economy should be adjusted.

And while China, which alone accounts for a third of the world’s emissions, is the world leader in the use of coal, it is also the world leader in green energy – installing more each year than Europe and the US combined.

The recent victory of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva in Brazil’s presidential election is seen as a possible turning point in the fight to reach the global climate goals. With the outspoken climate skeptic Jair Bolsonaro in power, important Amazon rainforests have been razed at a rapid pace – which Lula says he wants to stop.

Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also predicted for the first time that demand for fossil fuels is likely to peak by the end of the decade. “The global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to an attempt by many countries to use other energy sources to replace the natural gas that Russia has withheld from the market,” IEA director Fatih Birol comments on the development, noting that solar and wind fill much of the gap while the rise in coal use appears to him to be temporary.