Scholars familiar with Iran consider the ongoing protests rare because they involve such a wide range of people from diverse backgrounds.
Democracy is demanded in the protests that have been going on for six weeks in Iran, says a researcher with an Iranian background Airin Bahmani In ‘s morning interview.
– The demonstrations have raised questions that have troubled Iran for years, if not decades, Bahmani says.
State repression has targeted all people who have questioned the legitimacy of the administration, he reminds.
Oppression has targeted women in particular. The group also includes dissidents, human rights activists, ethnic and religious minorities, artists, and filmmakers.
A particularly large number of people were on the streets the other night, when 40 days had passed since a 22-year-old Kurdish woman Gina Mahsa Amini died after being arrested by the chastity police. According to eyewitnesses, Amini died after receiving blows to the head, among other things.
For example, in Amin’s hometown of Saqqez, the authorities violently clashed with thousands of protesters.
Investigator Hannu Juusola says that the demonstrations can already be described as a kind of popular uprising. The special thing is that the protests are not limited to Tehran, but they are in different parts of Iran, for example in the Kurdish region, near the Pakistani border and in the Caspian Sea region, Juusola lists.
– The challenge posed by the protests to Iran’s leadership is very big, even though the protests have been responded to very harshly from the beginning, he says.
Conservative circles have also taken to the streets
Iran has seen large demonstrations before after the Islamic revolution in -79, but now there are people on the streets from wider circles than before.
– There are also people from cities considered conservative in the protests. The whole of Iranian society is involved, says Juusola.
According to Airin Bahmani, in the previous large demonstrations in 2019, mostly middle-class people in big cities were on the move, but now a more diverse crowd is demanding basic rights as well as economic and social rights.
– The timidity of the demonstrations shows that, in the opinion of Iranians, reforms cannot take place within the framework of the current state structure, he says.
The continuation of strikes can be decisive for the success of the popular uprising
Although the protests are described as the largest in the entire Islamic Republic, it is still difficult to predict the fall of the Iranian regime.
The protest movement does not have a leader, moreover, due to the interruption of communication, it is difficult for the demonstrators to know about each other’s movements in different parts of the country, the researchers reasoned.
In Iran, some industries are said to have gone on strike in support of the protests. According to Hannu Juusola, strikes can even play a decisively important role.
He compares the current situation to the events that partly contributed to the fall of the Shah-led monarchy in Iran in 1979.
– Strikes are important if you think about the downfall of the shah. That specifically included the fact that sectors vital to the state economy went on strike, says Juusola.
According to him, the ouster of the current Iranian regime in the revolution cannot yet be predicted.
– We are talking about months, maybe even years, he estimates.
The real situation is unknown due to the disconnection
Over the past few weeks, more than 12,000 people have been arrested in Iran, according to official figures, with at least 250 confirmed deaths. Both researchers say the numbers are likely to be higher.
The authorities have blocked the operation of the network and telephone traffic..
– They may have succeeded in the fact that we do not have accurate information about the events. But they have not succeeded in preventing the demonstrations, says Juusola.
According to Juusola, the continuation of the protests for such a long time is probably a surprise for the Iranian leadership.
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