Elisabeth Borne. Elisabeth Borne triggered, Wednesday, October 19, article 49.3 of the Constitution. In the process, the Nupes and the RN brandished the threat of a motion of censure. Can the Prime Minister be forced to resign by the deputies?
[Mis à jour le 19 octobre 2022 à 18h35] It was only a matter of time, now it’s over. On Wednesday October 19, without surprise, the Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, drew article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution to force through, and without the vote of the deputies, the first part of the budget for 2023 of the State. “In approaching the budget debate, we knew the difficulties facing us. A budget reflects ambitions and commitments. We could have given up the search for a compromise. We have chosen dialogue”, she said. started, causing some laughter in the hemicycle. “Everything indicates that we will not meet the deadlines set for the discussions of this first part of the PLF for 2023. In responsibility, we must give a budget to our country”, she continued, before deciding: “I engages the responsibility of my government for the first part of the 2023 finance bill.”
Neither one nor two, the oppositions have stepped up. Denouncing in particular “an admission of weakness”, the Nupes tabled a motion of censure against the government, said the president of the LFI group in the Assembly Mathilde Panot. The National Rally was to follow suit, with the opposition having 24 hours to file a motion of censure. In the event of adoption of the said motion of censure by an absolute majority (ie 289 votes), this immediately entails the resignation of the Prime Minister and, with it, of his government. Otherwise, the text is adopted without a vote.
Five months after her arrival at Matignon, Elisabeth Borne is therefore already playing her role. However, the deputies of the majority should not vote in favor of the motion of censure. It remains to be seen what the Republicans intend to do when the RN has already announced that it will vote for the motion even if it is tabled by the Nupes. Shortly before 6 p.m. on Wednesday evening, the president of the LR group in the Assembly, Olivier Marleix, nevertheless indicated that the right would not make a motion, believing that “it would not be serious to add disorder to disorder”. What leave Elisabeth Borne to hope for a little support from the Republicans. To be continued…
Could Elisabeth Borne be forced to resign?
Since her appointment, Elisabeth Borne has been at the head of a fragile government, jostled by a National Assembly without an absolute majority and with powerful and virulent opposition groups who do not hesitate to shake up legislative habits. Thus, dialogue and finding a consensus on each text is a permanent fight for the Prime Minister. However, on the question of the budget, which has stirred the ranks of the Assembly for ten days, the task is much more difficult. Or even impossible. Because for several weeks, the National Rally, the Nupes as well as the Republicans have announced that they will not vote for the budget proposed by the government. This represents 302 deputies, more than half of the hemicycle. In this context, it was impossible for Elisabeth Borne to have the text adopted. The passage in force with article 49.3 is therefore undeniable. The Prime Minister therefore exposes herself to a motion of censure which could force her to leave office, if it is voted by an absolute majority (at least 289 votes).
However, his days at Matignon do not seem to be numbered. Indeed, it is not one but two motions of censure that should be tabled: a first text carried by the National Rally, a second by the Nupes. However, for one of the two (or both) to be adopted, it is necessary to bring together the voices of the left, the right and the extreme right. But a Nupes-LR-RN alliance seems highly unlikely. The former do not intend to sign a joint text with Marine Le Pen and her deputies, and vice versa. Well, not everyone. Because in the ranks of the left, some concede despite everything that an alliance with the RN could be considered. “It bothers me to vote with four Nazis (sic), but if it’s the only solution to bring down the government, I will do it. I also hear the friends who refuse”, reluctantly releases an LFI deputy at Parisian, even if “it pisses everyone off.” A good summary of the situation on the left.
On the side of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, patron saint of the RN deputies, affirmed that the elected officials of her political side would not vote, “a priori”, the motion of censure tabled by the Nupes. Sunday, October 16, she explained the reasons on BFM-TV. “It is completely legitimate that in our motion of censure, we find the reasons which are perhaps not the same as those of La France insoumise, for which we intend censorship”, she justified. To which must be added LR who does not intend to block the institutions by not voting on the motions.
Elisabeth Borne in danger with the pension reform?
In this context, the necessary gathering of 289 votes to overthrow Elisabeth Borne and her government seems impossible. The Prime Minister therefore does not appear, at first sight, in the hot seat and should continue her mission as head of government despite a stifling legislative climate with attacks from all sides of the opposition. His mission at Matignon will continue, at least until the explosive pension reform. There, in the event of a forced passage with 49.3, the RN did not rule out signing a motion of censure other than his own. This would make the exercise much more dangerous this time for an Elisabeth Borne who walks on a ridge line with this subject.