(Finance) – Even without the “Draghi diary”, the challenges and priorities for the government do not change. And with the road already marked by the war and the consequent energy crisis, the room for maneuver for the new executive is limited. The Draghi government leaves public accounts in order to the new executive, with debt and deficit both down in 2022 compared to last year. But the outlook for the economy is not rosy, as well as for interest rates, already under pressure and expected to rise sharply next year.
In this scenario, the most difficult task is entrusted to new Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti who is responsible for the development of one Budget law whose bill, at the start, appears already high. For the next tenant in via XX Settembre, the first step will be the extension until the end of the year of the aid to families and businesses expiring in November, which could result in an amendment to the aid decree ter (which begins on 26 the examination by the special commission ). Before the real test bench, represented by the maneuver, there are the Nadef and the Dpb with the programmatic framework, which will provide a first snapshot of the resources and economic policy indications for the budget law.
Accounts in hand i new support on the cost-energy front to secure the first quarter of the year, alone, according to estimates, they risk absorbing around 30 billion. Concrete help can come fromagreement reached by Mario Draghi in Europe whose decisions, which will be formalized in the coming weeks, “will soon translate into lower bills”. The price of gas today has already fallen by 10%, a sign – said Draghi – of a “very significant speculative component” in the dynamics of costs.
If confirmed, the 2-point cut of the tax wedge it will cost the executive headed by Giorgia Meloni another 4.5 billion. In the item outputs the renewal of PA contracts, while in the revenue chapter there could be 3-4 billion of cohesion funds that the EU has allowed to use for expensive energy and the possible lower expenditure deriving from changes to the citizen’s income or from the reshaping of the Superbonus.
Also on the table pensions node. In addition to the revaluation of the checks, for an expenditure of 8-10 billion, there is also the need to intervene to prevent the return to the Fornero law in 2023 and on this there are several ways to study, first of all a Quota 41 with an age threshold that would make it possible to reduce spending even considerably.
The new government, on the other hand, will have to be cautious on the front of electoral promises, most of which at the moment appear unsustainable from an economic point of view even in the face of a hypothetical new scrapping of the folders. Among these is the Flat tax: the League pushes for an extension of up to 100 thousand euros in turnover but the president of Confindustria Carlo Bonomi brakes and calls for caution.
On the political front, the decision with a capital “d” will concern him budget variance. The outgoing government has avoided resorting to it until the end, but in the wake of the implementation of the announced measures, the Meloni government could choose this path. The question seems to divide the center-right: Salvini has been insisting for months and Meloni continues to define him as the last resort. For Giorgetti, who does not say he is “against”, there remains a possible option to consider.