The territorial losses of the Russian army in Ukraine have hit a bad dent in Russian state propaganda.
There have been signs of nervousness in the snarky talk shows on television channels, and well-known nationalists on social media have harshly criticized the military leadership.
– It is clear that it is no longer possible to say that everything is going according to plan, Program Director of the Foreign Policy Institute Arkady Moshes says.
Weak military success threatens to crumble the Russian president Vladimir Putin Cultivate the image of a tough and invincible leader.
Moshes considers it premature to say that there has been some kind of breakthrough: Putin’s position is not yet threatened.
He justifies it with three background factors.
1. The people don’t want to know
The majority of the Russian population simply does not know what is happening in Ukraine, says Arkady Moshes.
– Not because there is no information, but because it doesn’t want to know.
A large majority do not believe that the Russian military is firing on the civilian population and civilian infrastructure, or that Russian forces are committing atrocities in the occupied territories.
– These people listen to state propaganda, which reassures and says that everything is fine.
Moshes believes that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has differed from other wars—the Soviet war in Afghanistan or Russia’s wars in Chechnya—in that people do not want to know the truth.
In Moshes’s opinion, it is pointless to expect any popular uprising in Russia anyway.
– The nation is not ready for it, it is too atomized, demoralized, too focused on its everyday life.
2. The opposition has been crushed
There is practically no anti-war liberal opposition left in Russia that could campaign politically under anti-war slogans.
– It simply does not exist, it is either in prison, emigrated or lost hope, Moshes states.
On the channels of the Telegram messaging service, criticism has instead been presented by ultra-nationalist parties. Nationalist circles want more and more effective war.
Some of the hard-line nationalists are connected to the power brokers from the security services, the siloviki.
The dissatisfaction of the nationalists is some kind of problem for Putin, but not necessarily very threatening.
– These people realize that rocking the boat and demanding a change of political leadership in the conditions of war is still too risky, says Moshes.
3. The elite do not oppose each other
In Russia, there are practically no members of the elite who can clearly state that the events in Ukraine do not correspond to their interests.
– The elites are the beneficiaries of Putin’s regime, they have lived very well during Putin’s time, Moshes reminds.
Therefore, the question of opposing Putin is a very difficult thing for them, he continues.
Moshes estimates that the situation at the front would have to deteriorate even more so that the atmosphere among the elites would start to escalate.
It would be dangerous for Putin if he lost the support of the representatives of the state’s violent apparatus.
Moshes compares the situation to the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan. According to him, it did not in itself cause the end of the Soviet Union, but as the system collapsed, it became one factor in the collapse.
What can Putin do?
Arkady Moshes does not believe that the Kremlin will announce a general motion. The domestic political danger would be to wake the nation from its passivity.
– First of all, it would be extremely risky, because people could start to wonder what is really going on.
On the other hand, the benefits of business promotion are not obvious. A huge number of people would enter military service, which would have to be fed, armed and clothed, but they would not be able to participate in the war in Ukraine until months later.
Therefore, Moshes estimates that the Russian leadership will continue its current policy: volunteers and contract soldiers are drawn into the war.
Moshes estimates that in this situation, Russia will increase its diplomatic activity.
Russia is trying to pressure the Western countries with the energy crisis, so that the Western countries would force Ukraine to the negotiating table. The goal at that time would be to stop the fighting and freeze the current situation.
Moshes considers it unlikely that the West would bend to concessions. It is unclear whether this is understood by the Russian leadership. Phone calls to Putin by the leaders of Germany and France may create the impression in the Kremlin that the plan to put pressure on Ukraine through the West could work.
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