“No Central Asian country is ready to sign a memorandum stipulating the creation of a united front against the West”
Interview with Temur Umarov, China and Central Asia specialist at the Carnegie Foundation
RFI: This visit to Kazakhstan, then to Uzbekistan marks the first outing of the country for Xi Jinping since January 2020. Why this choice of Central Asia?
Temur Umarov : Central Asia has always been on the radar of Chinese foreign policy. Since these former Soviet republics in Central Asia became independent in the early 1990s, China has tried to establish good relations with the political regimes in place in the region. The priority for China is security issues. Because Central Asia borders the very sensitive region of Xinjiang in China, and also has a border with Afghanistan. That’s why China wants to make sure that Central Asian capitals are on the same page as Beijing on issues around separatism, terrorism and religious radicalism. On this basis, China has built other relations in other fields. First economic: in 2013, when Xi Jinping first visited Kazakhstan and announced the Belt and Road Initiative. Today, Central Asia is once again reminding China, especially after the events of January in Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan, there have been both mass protests and repression of the political elite. Russia has shown that it is closely involved in Kazakh internal issues. China for its part was content to watch. Chinese power was confused and did not know what to do about this crisis. Beijing understood at that time that having significant economic leverage is not enough. First you have to understand the internal politics, then you have to be able to influence the direction and the political choices that are important for the stability of the region. What we are seeing right now with Xi Jinping’s first overseas trip is China’s reaction to its weakness during the winter events in Kazakhstan. The statements of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the time showed a certain feverishness. One day, China was talking about a domestic problem, saying that only Kazakhstan should solve this problem. And the next day, Chinese diplomacy evoked an external event, and an attempt to create a color revolution in Kazakhstan. One of the objectives of this visit by Xi Jinping is to say that China still considers Central Asia a priority, that it wants to be considered as a country that counts, and that it wants to expand its presence in Kazakhstan and no longer be limited solely by economic considerations.
What commitments and what new Chinese investments can be expected from this visit to Kazakhstan?
Xi Jinping and Kassym-Jomart Tokaïev should sign new contracts focused in particular on investments in medium-sized industries and in non-energy fields. These investments should help Kazakhstan create jobs for the local population. Because what is most reproached to China in Central Asia, it is that it does not create employment, that it imports energy and that it is its only interest, say the critics. China therefore has the will to improve its reputation in the region by creating these jobs for the local populations. Another thing the two presidents should discuss are terrorism and security issues. Given what is happening right now in Ukraine and the consequences of sanctions against Russia on Kazakhstan, Xi Jinping and Tokayev should also talk about alternative logistical infrastructures so that Kazakhstan can have a plan B in the face of its difficulties. related to the sanctions against Russia. Sure, it wouldn’t be said out loud, it wouldn’t be a clear statement, but something along those lines will definitely be under consideration.
Will China express its desire to step out of its purely economic role with its Russian ally?
China is not going to send a message directly to the Kremlin. But Beijing knows that Russia needs Beijing more than ever. The Chinese leaders are very pragmatic and understand that in Central Asia, Russia is still considered a dominant power and that it still has many instruments to influence what happens in its pre-square. This is why China will refrain from creating an atmosphere of rivalry with Moscow. Instead, China will use Russia’s weakness to create a situation where Russia is willing to help China increase its visibility in Central Asia. Moscow considers China and Central Asia to be valuable allies, and therefore will have no choice but to cooperate.
In a quickly deleted message, ex-president Dimitri Medvedev suggested a few weeks ago that after Ukraine, Moscow could be interested in Kazakhstan, which has a strong Russian presence in the north of its territory. Could Russia come into conflict with one of its Central Asian neighbours?
Before the war in Ukraine, I would have said it was impossible. But to justify its intervention, Russia began to say that Ukraine was an artificial state. This same logic can be extended to other states that were once part of the Soviet Union, and so it is no longer impossible. I’m also not sure that the Kremlin’s decisions are taken rationally. So the possibility of a conflict is there. With all the same this difference in size between Kazakhstan and Ukraine: Kazakhstan is considered by Moscow as a friendly authoritarian political regime that does not use anti-Russian narratives or certain nationalist narratives in its internal politics. As long as the Kazakh government does not criticize Russia, it will be safe. And the political and economic ties with Russia are very high. But this logic of punishing a state because in the eyes of the Kremlin, it is considered fake, is very dangerous.
Chinese and Russian diplomats have expressed their intention to fight against a world described as unipolar and imposed by the West. Does the meeting of I’Shanghai Cooperation Organization will turn into a front of refusal against Western democracies?
Uzbekistan’s representative to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has already replied that the SCO was not created against the West. And I don’t think any country in Central Asia would be ready to sign a memorandum that stipulates the creation of a united front against someone. It is not in the interests of Central Asia at all. There will of course be talk about a fairer world order, about the fact that all countries should be equal, regardless of their size and the development of their economy. The question of a refusal front will be discussed above all during the bilateral summit between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, but probably not on behalf of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.