Sharp look, precise verb, Anders Fogh Rasmussen has lost none of his determination to fight against the Russian threat. As Prime Minister of Denmark (2001-2009) then Secretary General of NATO (2009-2014), the Dane has always endeavored to place security at the heart of European issues and takes a severe look at our action over the past twenty years. “Our response to the Russian aggressions was too weak”, judges Rasmussen today, who met The Express during a trip to Paris in early September.
The Ukrainian government called on him to define the main lines of its security architecture, once the war against the Russian invasion had been won. “At the moment, Ukraine is demonstrating on the front that, with sufficient resources, it can defeat Russia on the battlefield, underlines the former leader of the Atlantic Alliance. The Ukrainians are showing their desire to fight, the democratic world must empower them to do so. Once this war is over, we must ensure that Russia is never able to launch an invasion again.”
This Tuesday, September 13, Anders Fogh Rasmussen is in kyiv to deliver his advice personally to President Volodymyr Zelensky. He gives us his guidelines.
- Build an autonomous and powerful army
“The main idea is to ensure Ukraine’s self-defense, explains Rasmussen. Like Israel, kyiv must be able to defend itself against any external attack. We do not have to send our troops there, but We must prepare the Ukrainian Armed Forces for a solid defense by training them and carrying out joint large-scale exercises. It is essential that Ukraine has sufficient military forces to defend itself against a Russian attack. ‘Western Russia, Moscow has 300,000 soldiers: it is difficult to establish a target quantity on this subject, but we know that an attacking country must have three times more soldiers at its disposal than one which is defending itself. ”
To strengthen the Ukrainian army in the long term, Rasmussen suggests rebuilding its military industry on the standards of the European Union and NATO thanks to European aid: “as an official candidate for the EU, the Ukraine could benefit from privileged access to European funds, in particular the European Defense Fund and that of the European Facility for Peace (EFF, an extra-budget fund)”. Likewise, he recommends that Westerners maintain “weapons and intelligence transfers” to Ukraine over the long term.
On the Israeli model, the former secretary general of NATO also proposes to kyiv to set up a “territorial self-defense force” for all Ukrainians over 18, “inspired by all the countries which have a service mandatory military. This reserve force could be called upon to fight in the event of a crisis.
- Codifying international security alliances
Anders Fogh Rasmussen imagines bringing together a group of countries, “led by the United States”, responsible for guaranteeing Ukraine’s security within the Kyiv Security Compact. In the project presented to Zelensky, this group of allies notably includes France, Poland and the United Kingdom. “The role of these international guarantors would be above all to provide arms and training to the Ukrainians, but also to carry out joint military exercises and to provide financial assistance, explains Rasmussen. The idea is to codify what is has been going on for six months and the start of the Russian invasion.”
According to the former Danish Prime Minister, these security guarantees should not come in exchange for promises from kyiv on a limitation of the size of its army or on a status of international neutrality. On the other hand, they must “explicitly commit the signatories to ensuring that Ukraine is able to defend itself”.
These guarantees would be necessary until Ukraine integrates NATO and can benefit from its defense architecture, which remains its long-term objective.
- Negotiate only from a position of strength
“The time has not yet come for major international peace negotiations, which would compromise the Ukrainian position for dialogue, believes Rasmussen. Only one European capital can take the decision to open these negotiations, and that is kyiv. The Ukrainians must be able to negotiate from a position of strength. That is why we must deliver all the arms and economic aid they need.” For the consultant, the peace negotiations are still a long way off: “they will only happen when Putin feels he has to backtrack, one way or another.”
- Do not act according to the Russians
“We have to make our own decisions because, no matter what we do, Putin will translate it as a threat, underlines Anders Fogh Rasmussen. The way the Russians described NATO, a defensive organization, as a threat was absurd. Never we didn’t think of attacking Russia, it’s completely ridiculous!”
The Dane believes that some in the Western camp have not learned the lessons of history. “With dictators, appeasement does not lead to peace but, on the contrary, to war, he recalls. We witnessed this in Munich in the 1930s and more recently: with a little hindsight , our reaction was far too weak against the Russian aggressions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. At the beginning of the current crisis, we were too reluctant to deliver heavy weapons to the Ukrainians for fear of escalating the conflict. But Putin doesn’t have that fear, he’s ready to wield the nuclear threat. The best way to avoid escalation is to keep a tough stance against Russia.”
- Reforming the European security architecture
Rasmussen’s advice is not only addressed to kyiv: the former Secretary General of NATO joins Emmanuel Macron in his desire to modify the European security architecture. “Three elements are essential in this new scheme, judges the Dane. First, NATO has demonstrated its strength and cohesion during this crisis, and therefore continue to strengthen NATO’s territorial defense – in particular by stationing troops in Eastern Europe – is an integral part of this reinforced European security architecture. Secondly, military cooperation must be intensified within the European Union, in addition to NATO. We Europeans can do more to strengthen our military industry, create a well-functioning internal defense market, ensure that our troops can cross borders easily… And also, increase defense funds within the European Union. , we need security guarantees between European countries, since not all of them are members of NATO or the EU. This will be the most effective way to guarantee lasting peace in Europe, unlike the current system which failed.”