The Middle East and the Mediterranean are warming twice as fast as the rest of the world

The Middle East is warming at almost twice the rate of the global average with potentially devastating effects for its people and economies, says a new study on the climate. As a result, the region’s more than 400 million people risk facing waves of heat extremes, to droughts prolonged periods and a rise in sea level, indicates this study to which numerous authors have contributed and published two months before the UN Climate Conference (COP27) which will take place in Egypt.

The study found an average increase of 0.45 degree celsius by decade in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean (EMME), on the database collected from 1981 to 2019, during which time the global average increase was 0.27 degrees per decade. In the absence of immediate changes, the region is expected to warm by five degrees Celsius by the end of the century, which could exceed the ” critical adaptability thresholds humans in some countries, warns the study.

Populations ” face major challenges in matter health and livelihoods, including disadvantaged communities, the elderly and pregnant women », explains Jos Lelieveld, of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Cyprus Institute, two entities that contributed to the study. The study covers the region stretching from Greece to Egypt via Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Iran.

Facing major challenges that transcend borders

The Middle East is not only likely to suffer severely from climate change, but also to be a major contributor to it, the study continues. It shows that this region rich in oil could soon become one of the major sources ofemission of greenhouse gas and thus overtake the European Union within a few years. ” Since the repercussions of climate change go beyond borders, closer collaboration between the countries concerned is essential to deal with the harmful effects of this phenomenon. adds Mr. Lelieveld.

George Zittis, one of the study’s authors, warns of an expansion of drylands and rising sea levels that ” will lead to significant changes in coastal areas and agriculture », especially in the Nile Delta, in Egypt.

According to the study, these are almost all » the areas of life that will be « seriously affected » by hotter and drier climates. This will potentially contribute to an increase in the death rate and exacerbate the “ inequalities between the wealthy and the poorest ” of the region. In November, representatives of almost 200 countries are due to meet for COP27 in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on the Red Sea to follow up on the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed to keep global warming below +2 °C by 2100, and if possible below +1.5°C.

The planet has warmed by an average of almost 1.2 degrees since the pre-industrial era. In May, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization said there was a one in two chance that the1.5 degree lens is reached during for the next five years.