(Finance) – The waiting for the decisions that will be made is rising European Central Bank tomorrow to respond to the highs ofinflation registered in August (+ 9% in the euro area). The general expectation is that of a further and substantial rise on interest rates – by at least 50 basis points – but the possibility that it can “lengthen the pace”, in line with the moves of the Federal Reserve: an increase of 0.75 percentage points (75 basis points).
Another possibility is that you widen the “corridor of rates“, operating differentiated increases between the main reference (currently at 0.50%), marginal operations (0.75%) and the deposit rate (which in June was brought to zero with a block increase of 50 basis points ).
Although the signs of a slowdown in theeconomyto date the growth ofeuro area continued and even more solidly than expected. Eurostat has just revised its GDP growth estimate for the second quarter up to 0.8%. L’euro iInstead it continues to lose ground on the dollar and this increases the pressure on the monetary institution.
Looking at the general picture, the ECB’s decision will come on the eve of an autumn / winter that promises to be not easy on the price side, first of all for the crisis energy in which Europe has fallen following the sanctions against the b for the war with Ukraine. The communication of monetary policy decisions are expected at 2.15 pm tomorrow and half an hour after the president Christine Lagarde will hold the usual explanatory press conference.
Another element under the Council’s magnifying glass is the controversial aspect of the treatment of some maxi refinancing disbursed by the ECB to banks in the months of crisis caused by lockdown And anti Covid measures. They are paid at particularly favorable conditions that now contrast sharply with the increasingly less soft conditions that are being imposed on businesses and households, passing through the banks.
Finally, the new ones will be published forecasts economic. It is above all those on expensive living that are in the spotlight: 6.8% for this year’s average, 3.5% on the next and 2.1% on 2024. On the growth of the eurozone last June, the Frankfurt technicians they estimated 2.8% this year and 2.1% in both 2023 and 2024.