A week after the launch of its counter-offensive in southern Ukraine, kyiv seems to be showing its first successes. Without specifying their names – kyiv now has strict control of information – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indeed welcomed Sunday the resumption of “two localities in the South”. kyiv’s objective: to wrest the city of Kherson from the Russians, conquered by Moscow’s forces last March, as well as all the occupied territories located on its outskirts. Capital of the province of the same name, Kherson (283,000 inhabitants before the war) is the only large city held by the Russians west of the Dnieper. For Russia, its control is crucial.
“This wide river, which divides Ukraine in two, constitutes a significant natural obstacle, which can be extremely complex to cross. Having a bridgehead on its western bank is therefore a precious asset for Russia, confirms Michel Goya , a former naval colonel, now a war historian. The loss of this area would significantly complicate any Russian attempt to launch operations in southwestern Ukraine.” In particular towards Odessa, the largest Ukrainian port, vital for the country’s economy.
Significant symbolic defeat
Through an intense campaign of strikes in recent weeks, the Ukrainian forces have already managed to seriously disrupt the Russian logistics lines linking Kherson to the occupied territories, located east of the Dnieper. “All the bridges are out of order,” spokeswoman for the Ukrainian army’s southern command, Natalia Goumenyuk, said on Monday, adding that “three pontoon bridges” built by the Russian army had also been destroyed.
In mid-August, the Ukrainian regional authorities had already indicated that a large part of the Russian military command had left the city following bombardments. “If the Russian army were to be pushed out of the city in the weeks or months to come, it would be a major defeat for it, but also for Vladimir Putin, judge Michel Goya. Symbolically, this would mean that the Ukrainian army is taking over.”
Ukrainian soldiers on the front in the Kherson region
Metin Aktas / Anadolu Agency via AFP
In any case, it would deprive Moscow of an economically attractive area. “Unlike Donbass, whose infrastructure has been ravaged by the fighting, Kherson has been relatively preserved, points out Vincent Tourret, researcher specializing in military issues at the Foundation for Strategic Research. A reconquest of these territories would allow Ukraine to resume the control of its maritime facade west of the Dnieper, and therefore to re-export more easily foodstuffs to support its economy. And thereby his war effort.
“Positive effects for Ukrainian morale”
In any case, this counter-offensive falls at the worst for a Russian army which, since the beginning of the summer, has not managed to post any significant territorial gains. During the day on Sunday, British intelligence even mentioned “combat fatigue” and “problems of morale and discipline” of the Russian forces, whose losses, reassessed on Monday by British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, would be 25 000 killed, a figure that would rise to more than 80,000 if we add the wounded, captured and deserters.
Conversely, a victory for Ukraine “would create positive effects on Ukrainian morale and would free up forces to go to other fronts”, judge Vincent Tourret. “The ideal for the Ukrainians would not only be to retake Kherson, but also to cross the Dnieper to have their own bridgehead, abounds Michel Goya. This would give them the possibility of maneuvers to threaten the entire zone occupied by the Russians in the south. of the river, even in the Crimea.”
If, for the time being, a Ukrainian victory in Kherson is far from certain, the situation in the region has nevertheless already forced the Russian occupation authorities to review their plans. While, for several months, they claimed to be preparing referendums aimed at attaching the occupied territories to Russia, a postponement was mentioned on Monday. “We were prepared for the vote, we wanted to organize it very soon, but due to the current events, I believe that we will take a break,” Kirill Stremoussov, the deputy head of the administration, told Russian public television. occupation of Kherson. Before resuming a few hours later, saying that the referendum would take place “whatever happens”. After getting slapped on the knuckles?