At the time of the offensive on the Donbass, at the end of the spring, Russia “fired about 20,000 shells a day”, had estimated the Ukrainian authorities, struggling to respond to this deluge of fire. Moscow was then relying on the thousands of guns at its disposal, as well as on a substantial stock of ammunition – a legacy of the Cold War, when the USSR stood ready for a direct confrontation with the West.
A few months later, the Kremlin’s reserve of Soviet shells melted… And Vladimir Putin was reduced to buying “millions of shells and rockets” from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, according to declassified information of American intelligence revealed Monday, September 5 by the New York Times. A sign that the Russian army could weaken on its current strong point, the artillery.
“This means that they have already emptied the stocks of the Belarusians or that they have closed the floodgates, estimates Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher in armaments and prospective at the Center for Security Studies at Ifri. “Koreans, on the other side of their territory, the situation is more difficult than they care to admit.”
More than six months after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, several factors may explain Russia’s difficulty in renewing its own stockpile of shells. First, its arms factories are struggling to meet the high demand. Then, the destruction of dozens of ammunition depots, behind the front, thanks to the Himars rocket launchers delivered to Ukraine by the United States, probably undermined its supply chains.
Sanctions, weapons and a common border
Russia would therefore have resolved to solicit North Korea, whose guns also work with 152 mm shells. This standard, used against the Germans during the Second World War, is one of the characteristics of the Russian army – NATO members use 155 mm shells. It is still in service in a large number of countries in the former Soviet sphere of influence.
Ukrainian soldiers take cover during a duel between Russian and Ukrainian artillery in the city of Lysychansk in the Donbass region on June 11, 2022.
ARIS MESSINIS / AFP
Russia has only a small border of 18 km, river, in the extreme south-east of its territory, with North Korea. Only a “bridge of friendship”, mainly rail, connects the two countries. It is through this passage that Pyongyang can provide Russia with these 152 mm shells, before crossing the Siberian immensity for several days, by the Trans-Siberian, to the Ukrainian front.
The heavy economic and financial sanctions imposed on Russia have brought Putin closer to Kim Jong-un, whose country has been ostracized from the international community for several years for continuing its nuclear program. Along with Syria, North Korea is Moscow’s other ally to have recognized the self-proclaimed republics of Lugansk and Donetsk. And she could send workers to participate in the reconstruction of Donbass, assured the Russian ambassador in Pyongyangin July.
This is not the first time that the Russian army has sought to obtain equipment from a “pariah” state. The Biden administration reported in July that Moscow had ordered Mohajer-6 and Shahed military drones from Iran. But this material would encounter technical problems, recently indicated the washington post. For Russia, the continuation of the war against Ukraine promises to be increasingly complicated.