Published: Less than 20 min ago
Magdalena Andersson’s block leads weakly in Aftonbladet/Demoskop’s new voter barometer.
But a victory is far from certain.
The Green Party is dangerously close to the Riksdag barrier.
With only six days left until the election, it is still shockingly even between the blocks that want to take government power in Sweden.
The Moderates, the Christian Democrats, the Sweden Democrats and the Liberals gather 49.4 percent support in Aftonbladet/Demoskop’s new voter barometer.
The Social Democrats, the Green Party, the Center Party and the Left Party get 49.9 percent.
A lead of 0.5 percentage points for the red-green block – but then another challenge lurks instead.
Lost a full percentage point
The Green Party, which in several opinion polls managed a bit above the four percent required for a party to enter the Riksdag, is in Aftonbladet/Demoskop’s new poll dangerously close to the barrier, with 4.3 percent.
The party has lost a full percentage point in just one week.
– It could be that the voters have felt that the MP is on solid ground, and then go back to their “mother party” because they do not feel it is necessary to vote in support, says Karin Nelsson, CEO of Demoskop.
She points out that opinion polls are associated with uncertainty and contain a margin of error. But also states:
– If the MP falls out of the Riksdag, an Andersson-led government becomes impossible.
Where are the MP voters going?
– They go to the Social Democrats and the Left Party. They also take voters from the Left Party, but very few from the Social Democrats.
– Some environmentalists have also joined the Center Party because they appreciate C’s climate policy.
Can decide the election
The uncertain voters and movements within the blocks will likely be what decides the election, Karin Nelsson believes.
This close to the election, the vast majority of voters have chosen which block they intend to vote for. However, many stand and weigh between parties within the block. That’s how it looks on both sides of politics, and a lot about the relationship with the Sweden Democrats.
– If you choose to vote for Magdalena Andersson’s law, it means that you want to keep SD out of government power. If you vote within Ulf Kristersson’s team, you choose a party based on the strength ratio you want the parties to have in relation to each other.
But even block changers – uncertain voters who change block and party – can influence the outcome of the election, according to Karin Nelsson.
The Center Party has a key role there.
“Straight back position”
The party stands out in this measurement. After it became known that party leader Annie Lööf was the target of the crime in Almedalen, C has increased from 6.8 percent to 8.1 percent.
– It may be due to sympathy votes, but also to the fact that C’s politics have received attention. And that they think that Annie Lööf maintains a straight-backed position regarding the relationship with the SD, that C is needed in an Andersson-led government.
SD is still the largest party after S in this survey as well.
The moderates, who with 18.3 percent are thus the third largest party, are losing voters to SD.
Tightened integration policy
But there are also SD voters who go to M.
Karin Nelsson explains that the issues that SD used to raise alone, such as immigration and integration, have now become issues that basically all parties have sharpened their policies on.
– Some voters have gone to SD because they have not felt that the other parties have solutions. Now many perceive that M, and also other parties, have taken up issues that are important to the voters and formulated a policy that is credible. Then M takes back voters from SD.
The question asked was: Which party would you vote for if there were parliamentary elections today?
Numbers in parentheses show the difference to the previous measurement.
Facts
About the survey
The survey was carried out by Demoskop on behalf of Aftonbladet within the framework of the Inizio panel, which reflects the Swedish people. The target group is the general public aged 18 and over. The survey includes 2,163 interviews during the period 31 August–4 September 2022 and is conducted as a web survey. The question asked was:
“Which party would you vote for if there were parliamentary elections today?” If the respondent does not state a party, they receive the follow-up question: “Which party do you lean towards?” and those who do not answer this either receive the follow-up question “Which party do you think is the least bad?”. In the report, these three questions are combined to show the result of party sympathies if there were an election for the Riksdag today. The question about party sympathy is supplemented with an open question where the respondent describes in their own words how they reason about the party choice.
The selection is pre-stratified and weighted by age, gender, region and party in the previous election.
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