The Sweden Democrats have overtaken the Moderates in several opinion polls in the past week. Jonas Hinnfors, political scientist at the University of Gothenburg, points out that one should be careful about making too big a difference in daily measurements. At the same time, it is “obvious” that M had difficulty lifting, he adds.
— No matter how you look at it, SD is not a small support party that can be compared to KD or L. They are a large party that claims to have the same space and the same influence as M.
But size does not guarantee a place in the government if the right-wing bloc were to win, notes Jonas Hinnfors.
— It may not be possible for political reasons. But of course they can go into discussions with Kristersson with a lot more confidence than if M had started to climb and SD had fallen back, he says and adds:
“That changes the balance, and the voters can see that too, of course.
Approached SD
A possible explanation for the Moderates’ rise in public opinion may be due to the fact that the party has approached the Sweden Democrats in which issues are highlighted as important, the political scientist believes. The political debate is largely about shootings and crime – something that has benefited SD.
“Even the Social Democrats have recently begun to gravitate towards it, but the Moderates even more so.” You create a description of reality that is quite similar to SD’s: migration and crime and punishment are a problem and you tie them together, says Hinnfors.
The issues that the Moderates previously successfully pursued are no longer raised as much.
— How should taxes, the economy, the labor market, the welfare state and the public sector be viewed? These have been the big questions where you have been stuck for a long time with your own model. They have not disappeared, but they have become close to what is SD’s narrative and story.
Could be a problem
The risk then becomes that voters perceive the Moderates as a type of “light version of SD”, says Jonas Hinnfors, and instead vote for SD. Should the Sweden Democrats become bigger than the Moderates after the election, it could mean problems for party leader Ulf Kristersson.
— Should the Andersson side win a majority, Kristersson probably doesn’t have far left, at least if you look at how it has been historically.
When the right-wing bloc lost the election in 2018, Kristersson probably managed because he was relatively new as party leader, says Hinnfors. Otherwise, the Moderates have had what he calls a “quite business-like attitude” – as party leader you deliver a profit, otherwise you have to leave.
Should Kristersson’s government alternative, on the other hand, gain a majority, Jonas Hinnfors believes that the party leader will be allowed to remain in office – even if SD would become larger.
“Then you have still delivered government power,” he says.