Global warming, “it’s not just on television or on the other side of the globe, it’s also here”. Thomas, a 24-year-old student whose parents live in Corsica, admits that this summer made him particularly anxious: “They were located not far from the hurricanes. I called my mother to find out if everything was fine, it’s the first time that I had to worry like that, while my parents have been living there for thirteen years”, testifies the Breton. For good reason, a violent storm accompanied by gusts exceeding 200 km/ha hit the Island of Beauty on August 18, resulting in the death of five people. “I’m afraid to worry again and more regularly in the future,” says the young man. According to Meteo France reportrevealed on August 30, this unprecedented summer will become the norm around 2050 under the effect of the climate crisis if human-made greenhouse gas emissions continue at the same rate.
Summer 2022 is the second hottest observed in France since 1900, with a difference of +2.3°C compared to the period 1991-2020. Enough for widespread awareness? Eight out of ten French people say they take note of the urgency, according to a recent survey* carried out by the BVA institute for Orange and RTL. Martine, 58, from Toulouse, is not experiencing her first heat wave: “I had already suffered a lot in 2003, but it’s true that today, it’s more and more frequent and early .” In total, France suffered a record 33 days of heat waves, well above the 22 days reached in 2003, “even if the cumulative severity of the episodes of summer 2022 remains significantly lower than that of summer 2003”, indicates Météo France.
“We are choosing to move towards a future at + 3°C”
In an exceptional situation, exceptional measures? 73% of French people say that this awareness of the ecological crisis encourages them to profoundly change their behavior to limit their environmental impact, but only 28% are “totally” committed to it. Many engage in “small gestures” of everyday life. For Martine, this translates into a drop in watering, at a time when 93 departments are affected by a water restriction: “If certain plants die, it is because they are no longer adapted to this new climate. .” Laurie, graphic designer in Paris, decided to change detergent and maintenance products “so that they are less polluting”. Despite all the individual goodwill, this will not be enough, the scientists lament.
Certainly, “there is today a recognition of the fact that France is not spared from the impacts of climate change”, notes François Gemenne, specialist in questions of geopolitics of the environment and member of the IPCC. “But most people haven’t realized the magnitude of the shift that needs to be made to contain climate change within the limits set by the Paris Agreement.” This international treaty, concluded in 2015, aims to contain global warming to a level well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial level (1850-1900). “We make the choice, consciously or not, to go rather towards a future at + 3 or + 3.5°C”, regrets the researcher. “We are going to make some adjustments, some sort of compromise between what is possible and what is acceptable”, when “collective and global transformations” would be needed.
A missed five-year term on ecology, according to the French
Despite these alerts and government announcements, France is falling behind on its commitments. Between 2022 and 2030, our country will have to reduce its CO2 emissions by 4.7%, to be in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. However, since 2010, the decline is only 1.7%, according to the High Council for the Climate. Another objective: carbon neutrality, which should be effective from 2050. Concretely, within 30 years, the 196 signatory States of the 2015 treaty will have to get rid of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal in the lead), which still account for 80% of energy consumption, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
A goal deemed unattainable for many French people, especially since 70% of them believe that the State is not doing enough to fight against global warming, according to a poll conducted by YouGov in August. During the previous Macron five-year term, the state was condemned twice by the courts for climate inaction. “Over the past five years, I don’t have in mind a single flagship measure taken in favor of ecology”, regrets Laurie. For François Gemenne, the population is partly responsible for this assessment: “Emmanuel Macron was re-elected with a rather starving ecological and climate program. In fact, we did not really give the government a mandate to do more.”
Scientists nevertheless agree on one point: the State must act. “Its role is to support, to provide solutions to the French, but the efforts must be equitably distributed! The government, companies and local authorities must set an example”, insists Anne Bringault, coordinator of the Action Network programs climate (RAC). This is precisely the objective of Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne – also in charge of ecological transition -, who is starting a return to school tinged with green against a backdrop of soaring energy prices. “Climate change is no longer an inconvenient truth, it is a reality that destroys”, assured the head of government, during the meeting of French entrepreneurs from Medef, on August 29. “Everyone must do their part, in their own way,” she continues, referring to potential energy rationing measures for businesses this winter, if ever their energy conservation efforts were not sufficient.
“In a few years, we will miss the summer of 2022”
Anne Bringault raises other issues. The first: the transport sector, which is none other than the main emitter of CO2 in France, according to the Ecological Transition Agency (Ademe). “In particular, we are asking for investments in the railways: 3 billion euros are missing per year to meet our current climate objectives. The State has a role to play in allowing the train to become a real alternative.” The member of the RAC also points to the renovation of housing, “especially with the winter which promises to be complicated in terms of energy”, in particular because of the war in Ukraine. Finally, in collective catering, the government should make it compulsory to provide vegetarian options “so that everyone can choose”, she advises. In his most ambitious scenario to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, the Ademe recommends a reduction by three of our meat consumption, agriculture representing a fifth of CO2 emissions in France. The City of Lyon has taken a step in this direction: since the beginning of 2021, a meat-free and fish-free menu has been offered every day.
Problem, if these measures take time to be put in place – and above all, to be effective – global warming is progressing inexorably. Of the last eight summers, six are in the “top 10”. And the French are forced to get used to it, regrets François Gemenne: “We observe two phenomena: either the changes are very gradual and the population gets used to it, or they are brutal but episodic, and we forget them.” As a result, the specialist remains skeptical of short-term progress: “In a few years, we will regret the summer of 2022, when the temperature reached 40°C a few days a year, ‘only’.”
*Survey carried out by the BVA institute for Orange and RTL from 07/19/2022 to 07/21/2022, on a sample of 1000 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over.