ENERGY. Deliveries of Russian gas to France will stop “completely” from September 1. What further complicate the supply of energy, gas and electricity, for this winter, from there to fear a shortage? We take stock.
[Mis à jour le 31 août 2022 à 12h28] It was announced but Gazprom confirmed the end of Russian gas deliveries to Engie from Thursday September 1, 2022. The reason? The non-payment by the French group for the last deliveries made in July according to the Russian gas giant. A person close to the case explained, in defense of Engie, to the Figaro that “since the volumes sent by Gazprom no longer corresponded to the contract, Engie decided to apply the contractual clauses: either request penalties from Gazprom, or pay only the volumes actually delivered”. We must therefore no longer count on Russian gas to prepare gas stocks this winter, a news which raises fears of the risk of shortage already mentioned by several members of the government. Yet Gazprom’s deliveries only represented 4% of French gas stocks, so Emmanuelle Wargon, president of the Energy Regulatory Commission, said she was “confident” about the “possibility of spending the winter without gas Russian” this August 31 on LCI.
The cessation of deliveries “does not change much” according to the boss of the Commission, who expanded on the diversification of the gas supply: “We buy gas from other countries, such as Norway and “Algeria. We also buy liquefied natural gas” assuring in line with government spokesperson Olivier Véran that gas stocks will be 100% filled by the end of the summer. An announcement that looks reassuring but does not erase all the risks according to an Engie executive who tells the Parisian that “even if we filled our stocks with more than one month in advance, these only offer the equivalent of two months of our national consumption”.
The tension also concerns the supply of electricity with more than 32 nuclear reactors shut down and hydraulic dams whose production is affected by drought and low water levels. Also the whole government calls with one voice to “save energy everywhere, all the time right away” to use the words of Bruno Le Maire before the Medef on August 30. Still, if energy sobriety is not enough, more restrictive measures will be taken with regard to companies, first with rationing. As a last resort, load shedding operations – notably power cuts ranging from half an hour to two hours – can be organized and affect both individuals and professionals. An extreme scenario that the State wishes to avoid.
Without Russian gas, is there a risk of a shortage?
The valves are closed. Gazprom is stopping deliveries of Russian gas to Engie from September 1 when the gas supply is already a source of concern for this winter. However, Russian gas only represented 4% of the supply of the French energy company, although these deliveries could run out in the event of severe cold. August 30 on France Inter, the Minister for Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher wanted to be reassuring and assured that for “a normal winter, we have enough gas in quantity”, qualifying in the process that cold spells could lead to “hours or days of tension” and perhaps cuts for companies which could however rely on generators or batteries to overcome the difficulties. Hence the importance of reducing energy consumption quickly and sustainably, according to the minister, because if “we have achieved our objective of filling our gas stocks 100% by the end of the summer” according to Olivier Véran, guest of FranceInfo on August 30, “that does not mean that we will have enough” to last all winter.
Gazprom deliveries further slowed and interrupted
If France “depends little” on Russian gas as assured by Emmanuel Macron on August 26, the fact remains that the supply of gas is impacted by the cessation of deliveries. On August 31, the Russian energy company Gazprom also announced that it would “completely” stop the supply of gas from September 1 and “until receipt in full of the financial sums due for deliveries”. At issue in dispute over the payment of drastically reduced deliveries of gas to France.
Since this summer, only 1.5 TWh per month have been delivered by Gazprom according to Engie, which indicated in July that the share of Russian gas in its stocks is around 4%. Engie, however, claims to have put in place emergency measures to be able to continue gas deliveries to its customers even in the event of a stoppage of Russian gas deliveries. Algerian gas presents itself as a solution, but any negotiations for deliveries of Algerian gas are a closely guarded secret. The fact remains that on August 30, Olivier Véran, government spokesperson, deemed it “probable” to use this gas to ensure supply.
Are there problems with the electricity supply?
The supply and production of electricity in sufficient quantity also raise questions as more than half of the French nuclear fleet, 32 out of 56 reactors, is shut down. Once self-sufficient, France must now rely on imported electricity to meet its needs, a problem in times of energy crisis. The urgency is then to reduce energy consumption to consume less but over the longer term. There too, the risk of a prolonged outage is minimized by the executive director of EDF in charge of the customers, services and territories division, Marc Benayoun, who assured on August 26 that despite a very difficult situation, there is a very good chance that we will pass winter without load shedding”.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher nevertheless indicated August 30 on the airwaves of France Inter that power cuts could occur to individuals and businesses but only last “two hours maximum”. In addition to the cuts, it is the risk of rationing of energy consumption which awaits the companies which would be “the first affected” if necessary explained Elisabeth Borne on August 29 before the union of bosses. The Minister of Energy Transition exposed other intermediate measures to allow energy savings almost without realizing it, such as “lowering the voltage on the entire network” by going from 230 Volts to 220.