This is how the map is redrawn if SD becomes larger than M
Published: Less than 2 hours ago
If the Sweden Democrats win more than the Moderates in the election, Sweden’s political map will be redrawn for the second time in four years.
Almost nothing will be the same.
Magdalena Andersson gets hell. Ulf Kristersson disappears through a trapdoor.
For as long as any of us can remember, Sweden has had two governing parties, the Social Democrats and the Moderates.
When the right flank received the most votes, the Moderates led the government. If the left has been the biggest, the Social Democrats have been at the helm.
This arrangement, as strange as it may sound, has led to a trusting cooperation between S and M. When things have been windy, the parties have stood side by side. It is no coincidence that Magdalena Andersson took Ulf Kristersson with her to a symbolic military exercise in Northern Norway in connection with the NATO application last spring. They keep pace – when it matters.
The secure cooperation disappears rather quickly if SD overtakes the Moderates and becomes the country’s second largest party. Magdalena Andersson will never bring Jimmie Åkesson to Norway or share any trust with him. It is not on the map.
It is the most important change on the overall level. A familiar, homely way of leading the country and facilitating changes of government is going to the grave.
But what happens beyond that depends to a large extent on whether the right-wing opposition gets the opportunity to form a government or whether they remain in opposition.
The right-wing opposition gets the most votes and forms a government: In that situation, after all, I would think that Ulf Kristersson will become their prime minister.
The reason I think so is that this is how Jimmie Åkesson seems to want it. He has wanted to speed up his party slowly, to carefully train it into ever higher positions of power.
But of course the unsoured is the best.
However, I believe that it will be impossible for the Sweden Democrats to stand outside the government in this scenario. It is a solution that Åkesson seems to have accepted until now. But what reason is there for the largest party in the government base to be outside the government?
I would say none. And I think that is also the firm opinion of Åkesson’s party colleagues. Even if he wanted to, it would not be possible to resist the party’s pressure on that issue. Finally arrived at the real power.
SD will, even with this outcome, be the government’s dominant party. They will have the greatest chance to realize their ideas.
This reasoning is based on the fact that Ulf Kristersson still wants to become prime minister. And that he wants to bring SD into the government. He doesn’t want that today.
It was mathematical reasons, i.e. voter shares, that made the Moderates open the door to the Sweden Democrats. Without them, no change of power. It showed simple addition.
I would say that the math is still heavy on lead. After eight years in opposition, objections to rejecting government power if within reach are feather-light.
The right-wing opposition remains in opposition: With SD as the largest party in this constellation, Jimmie Åkesson becomes opposition leader.
The moderates are relegated to the back benches and Ulf Kristersson has to leave before he knows it.
But this is not a desirable perspective for Magdalena Andersson either. Far from there.
First, she has lost the one with whom, at least behind closed doors, she has been able to share responsibility for the country, Ulf Kristersson.
Secondly, she has a recognized very skilled debater against her as opposition leader, Jimmie Åkesson. His attacks will sting significantly more than Kristersson’s did. Åkesson is simply a more difficult competitor and a non-existent confidant. Small nails under the feet of Magdalena Andersson.
The power shift on the right side of politics has consequences for more parties than those most closely involved. The most important is the Liberals.
Right from the start, they are split on the Sweden Democrats and do not want them to be part of a new government. But can they be part of the basis for a government where SD has a place? Unclear.
New convulsions in the small party are to be expected. They may end up switching sides again – just like after the last election.
It must be said that the Sweden Democrats had an unlikely turn of events. Yes, I know it’s horrible to say that. But from SD’s perspective, the latest gang-related shootings couldn’t have come at a better time.
Support for the party decreased, not much but nevertheless, slightly during the spring. For a long time, SD seemed to be headed for its first ever defeat.
But that is no longer the case. Right now, support for Jimmie Åkesson’s party is three percentage points higher than the election results. Any other explanation than the new shootings is hard to find.
In January 2017, then-M leader Anna Kinberg Batra opened the door for cooperation with the Sweden Democrats on various issues. She did not want to sit in the same government and not negotiate the budget with them. But otherwise the previously isolated party could be included.
The announcement sent shock waves through the entire political system. This led, in turn, to Kinberg Batra being fired as party leader, the Alliance breaking up – and the Moderates now risk being permanently pushed out of their place as Sweden’s second largest party.
So many would vote for SD right now
arrow According to the latest voter barometer from Aftonbladet/Demoskop, 18 percent would vote for the Moderates if there were an election today. 20.6 percent would cast their vote for the Sweden Democrats.
The SD would thus be bigger than the Moderates.
The right-wing opposition, Team Kristersson, would collect 48.6 percent of the voters. Team Andersson’s parties are supported by 50.2 percent. The rest vote for another party.
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