(Finance) – “Expensive energy weighs on business confidence who are beginning to express strong doubts about the economic management capacity of the activities: with the current situation, in fact, increases of up to 140% in energy costs are expected for the next 12 months “. Confesercenti, commenting on the Istat confidence index for August.
“After the ‘euphoric’ break of mid-August – we read – the autumn of ‘realism’ arrives. If the positive economic phase of the first half of the year has extended its effects to the traditional summer break, now, when the holidays are back, it will be necessary to see how much the continuous increases in energy bills will affect the family budget and therefore on consumption.
For companies, the ‘shock’ has already arrived. The continuous rises in gas, inflation and uncertainty about the near future are putting the existence of over 90 thousand assets at risk. The Government must intervene immediately, with further measures aimed at maximizing support for economic activities and their budgets, starting with the extension to small businesses of the tax credit for electricity, increasing the tax credit percentages at least up to double (from 15 to 30 and from 25 to 50 for gas) and by extending the interventions at least until 31 December 2022. There is no more time to lose, there is a risk of economic collapse “.
For Confcommerciothe data on the confidence of households and businesses collected in August, albeit not of a simple and unambiguous interpretation, they are the sign of how our economic system continues to show an unexpected capacity to react to the many and serious critical factors. In particular, households do not yet show any particular stress from excess inflation. This does not mean that after the end of the sales and the tourist season the nodes on the loss of purchasing power of incomes and liquid wealth will come to a head, with expenditure and GDP compression in the final part of the year. However, in light of the overall strength of confidence, the phenomenon could have less negative dimensions than feared.
In any case, it seems likely that, in the context of trade, to suffer deeper losses in turnover it could still be the smaller companies. Finally, the gradual decline in confidence between manufacturing operators and many market service sectors (tourism and transport) should not be overlooked, on which, in addition to the energy crisis, the slowdown of many production activities located in upstream and downstream in international supply chains.
The rise in consumer confidence in August it is a mere optical illusion determined by the “summer vacation” effect. The Codacons, commenting on Istat data which recorded an increase in the consumer confidence climate index from 94.8 to 98.3.
“The summer holidays and the departures of the Italians for the holiday resorts have had un positive impact on household confidence, but it is a flash in the pan destined to go out quickly – says the president Carlo Rienzi – On returning from holidays, Italians will have to deal with the increases in retail prices, with high school prices and with the abnormal increases in energy that will trigger new increases in electricity and gas bills in October. A picture that will affect the expectations and confidence of families and businesses, which are destined to worsen significantly in the autumn months ”- concludes Rienzi.
Along the same lines too the National Consumers Union. “It’s just a technical rebound after the collapse that occurred in July due to the Draghi effect and the fall of his government. In short, a mirage destined to disappear soon. The fact that the Executive, although in office for the handling of current affairs, has nevertheless launched the Dl Aid Bis, intervening on gasoline and bills with a provision of 17 billion, in practice a maneuver, has certainly reassured the Italians. For this reason, expectations about Italy have improved “, says President Massimiliano Dona.
“However, the judgment on the economic situation of the family does not improve, which continues to be undermined by the high cost of living and by the expensive electricity and gas bills. In short, the real conditions of Italians remain serious and urgent is the launch of a new government measure against galloping inflation and skyrocketing gas “ concludes Dona.