Experts evaluated the actors and developments likely to affect the process in DW Turkish. The normalization talks that started between Turkey and Armenia increased hopes for peace, stability and cooperation in the region.
After many years, if diplomatic relations are established, borders are opened and transportation routes become functional, the door to peace and economic development in the South Caucasus will be opened.
However, although the negotiations that started in Moscow on January 14 created a positive atmosphere in the public opinion, there are many difficulties in front of the success of the process.
The expectations of regional states such as Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and the influence of the Armenian diaspora are among the important factors that can affect the process, as well as the internal political dynamics in both countries. Increasing geopolitical competition between global actors such as the USA and China is another factor that may affect the process.
For this reason, many experts say that the normalization talks will proceed on a sensitive and extremely fragile ground, and that they may face many challenges.
cautious optimism
International Crisis Group (ICG) Turkey Director Nigar Göksel, in his assessment to DW Turkish, said that the parties may want to make progress with mutual small steps and confidence-building measures at the first stage.
Göksel stated that within this framework, initiatives such as the resumption of flights from Turkey and the lifting of the embargo imposed by Armenia on Turkish goods could be continued with other steps.
Göksel said, “There are many variables that can affect the talks, such as the course of the process between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” and emphasized that they follow the developments with “cautious optimism”.
It started in good weather
It has been announced that the first meeting of Turkey’s appointed special representative, Serdar Kılıç, and Armenia’s special representative, Ruben Rubenyan, in Moscow, took place in a “positive and constructive” atmosphere.
In the statement made after the meeting, it was announced that the process would continue “with the goal of full normalization” and “without preconditions” and that the parties agreed on this issue.
While this statement had positive repercussions, it also increased expectations for the future.
Azerbaijan is part of the equation
Turkey recognized Armenia’s independence in December 1991, but closed its borders in 1993 due to Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijani lands.
Both attempts for normalization between the two countries, which have not had diplomatic relations for 30 years, were not concluded, the last of which was in 2009, largely due to Azerbaijan’s objections.
What paved the way for the third normalization attempt on the Ankara-Yerevan line was the fact that Azerbaijan won the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 with the military support of Turkey and took back a large part of its territory. This development paved the way for negotiations on the Ankara-Yerevan line.
However, it is critical that the unresolved issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan do not trigger a new conflict process during these negotiations, which started on a sensitive ground.
“Broad regional vision”
Well, what lies behind Turkey’s latest initiative? Answering this question, according to Nigar Göksel, Director of ICG Turkey, Turkey’s goal of normalizing relations with Armenia reflects a broader regional vision.
“In my opinion, Turkey sees normalization with Armenia as part of a regional integration that extends over time, beyond the opening of the border between the two countries,” Göksel continued as follows:
“While Turkey is taking steps in this direction, it is careful not to antagonize Russia, which can prevent it whenever it wants. I am of the opinion that it can consolidate its cultural and commercial presence and soft power.”
“There is an opportunity to normalize”
For Yerevan, which was defeated in the Nagorno-Karabakh war and whose economy was in trouble, establishing diplomatic relations with Ankara and opening the border gates with Turkey are of great economic importance.
“Normalization between Turkey and Armenia can help stabilize the region. It can also accelerate economic development by opening important transportation routes,” Stepan Grigoryan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Yerevan-based think tank Globalization and Regional Cooperation Analytical Center, told DW Turkish.
Emphasizing that there is an opportunity for normalization between Turkey and Armenia, Grigoryan said that Ankara wants to open up transportation to Azerbaijan and Central Asia via Armenia, and that the government in Yerevan is ready to discuss them.
Yerevan’s ‘new condition’ concerns
Stating that they hope to strengthen the dialogue in the region with the normalization of relations with Turkey, Grigoryan said, “It is hoped that the normalization of relations with Turkey will also have a positive effect on Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.”
Stating that Armenia is ready for “normalization without preconditions” and that Turkey has declared a will in this direction, Grigoryan noted that it is also possible for the Turkish side to change its stance during the negotiations and to put forward new preconditions.
Grigoryan added that if Turkey associates normalization with Armenia with Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, this will turn into an important problem for the process.
The genocide debate and the attitude of the diaspora
In the past, strong objections were made to the normalization attempts on the Ankara-Yerevan line from influential groups in the Armenian diaspora, and the condition of recognizing the massacres in 1915 as genocide by Turkey was put forward for the normalization of relations.
The adoption of genocide resolutions in the parliaments of many countries such as Germany and France in recent years, and the use of the definition of genocide by the US President Joe Biden in his April 24 statement are seen as important gains by the diaspora.
While the influential organizations of the diaspora keep their demands from Ankara on the agenda, they take a tougher stance due to Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh war.
Political analyst Grigoryan, on the other hand, said that the opposition of the diaspora to normalization attempts does not put much pressure on the Armenian government in the current conjuncture. Pointing out that the current government was re-elected on June 20, 2021, the expert emphasized that Nikol Pashinyan’s government has wide popular support.
How can the West play a role?
In the statements made by the USA and the EU, the start of the normalization talks between Turkey and Armenia was welcomed. Western capitals attach importance to easing the economic isolation of Armenia and reducing its dependence on Russia, especially in this process.
Stepan Grigoryan is of the opinion that both the USA and EU countries can actively support the normalization efforts. “Moreover, the West should remind Turkey of the destructive role that Azerbaijan played in the war launched against Armenia and the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh by violating international law. With the steps it will take now, Turkey will be able to restore its reputation in the international community, albeit partially, by normalizing its relations with Armenia. “he expressed his opinion.
Will Russia’s support last?
The role played by Russia in the normalization efforts on the Ankara-Yerevan line is one of the most curious subjects.
The first meeting between the special representatives of Turkey and Armenia was hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia. However, the parties draw attention to the fact that the negotiations will be conducted through direct talks, without a mediator.
Stepan Grigoryan, an international relations expert who also served as Armenia’s ambassador to Moscow in the past, made the following remarkable assessment while evaluating Russia’s role:
“Russia says in its official statements that it supports this process. But it is difficult to say how long this support will last. In the case of normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations, it will be questioned whether there is a need for Russia’s military presence in Armenia, its military bases, from now on.”
Critical Article 9
So, what lies behind Russia’s moves? Daria Isachenko, one of the experts who closely follow the developments in the Caucasus, reminded that Russia stepped in in November 2020 and achieved a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and noted that Moscow sees the normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations as a necessity for the implementation of this agreement.
Isachenko, one of the experts at Berlin-based Center for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS), while evaluating the developments in DW Turkish, pointed out that the 9th article of the Armenia-Azerbaijan ceasefire agreement focuses on opening all economic and transport links in the region.
It is also stated in this article that new transport links will be created connecting the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic to Azerbaijan.
Isn’t Putin sincere in his support?
Daria Isachenko said that Russia seems to support this process, but some experts think that Moscow does not really want this, so it is discussed that the Kremlin may take an obstructive attitude in the future. CATS expert Isachenko continued:
“Yes, if the transport links are opened, Turkey’s access to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia will be opened. Here, Azerbaijan and Russia say that the Zangezur Corridor is meant, while Armenia does not accept this for now. However, the agreement means that the control of the transport corridor will be in Russia in any case. On the other hand, it is also said that Russia does not really want these transportation routes to be opened, and adopts an attitude as if it wants to.”
unpredictable process
With the recent developments, Russia’s increasing power in the Caucasus makes it even more important how Moscow can make moves in the future and how it can affect the normalization of Turkey-Armenia.
While Russia cooperates very closely with Turkey in some areas, the parties frequently confront each other in conflicts such as Libya, Syria and Ukraine, and Moscow does not hesitate to take firm steps against Ankara. In times of increased tensions, Russia’s restrictions on imports from Turkey or restrictions on tourism and travel have been frequent steps in the recent period.
It remains unclear how the developments that may occur in the conflict areas in the coming days will reflect on Russia-Turkey relations, and how Moscow will take a stance towards the Turkey-Armenia talks.
According to expert Daria Isachenko, Turkey also has important trump cards that it can use against Russia.
Reminding that Putin believes that Russia can only become a superpower if it is a naval power, Isachenko said that the Black Sea and the ability to cross the Straits to the Mediterranean are very important for Russia, therefore, sustainable relations with Turkey continue to be important despite tensions. he said he would.
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