The bank expects the Riksbank to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points in both September and November. Also in April next year, the bank expects an increase, so that the key interest rate will then be 2.25 percent.
After the summer, the bank believes that the Riksbank will lower the key interest rate to 2 percent, in order to mitigate the negative effects of the interest rate increases. As a result, the variable mortgage interest rate is also expected to fall.
According to the bank, the era of fixed mortgage rates that are lower than variable ones is “definitely over”. SBAB believes that mortgage interest rates with a fixed term of 3 to 5 years will in the long run be around 4.5 percent and interest rates with fixed terms of 1 to 2 years will be around 4 percent.
“For fixed periods of more than two years, it now appears expensive to guard against more significant increases in the variable interest rate. That window appears to have closed,” writes the bank’s chief economist Robert Boije in a comment.