In the foreground, the chic beach of Novofedorivka, in Crimea, with its outdoor four-poster beds… and its holidaymakers who take to their heels! On the horizon, a cloud of black smoke. The scene takes place on August 9. The Saki military airfield, three kilometers from the beach, has just been hit. Ammunition exploded there. A dozen planes were destroyed, maybe even more. A week later, Crimea, annexed in 2014 by Vladimir Putin, ignites again. This time, it is an explosion in the north of this region, at the Russian military depot of Djankoï. An “act of sabotage” according to the Kremlin, which remained surprisingly discreet.
In kyiv, no public claim, but the messages of officials leave little doubt about the responsibility for these strikes. On August 11, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense posted a video on social networks containing the codes of an advertising spot. On Bananarama’s “Cruel Summer” music, scrolls this text: “You had several options for your summer vacation”. And to state, images in support: “The island of Palm Jumeirah (in Dubai), the hotels of Antalya (Turkey), or the beaches of Cuba…” Then: “You have chosen Crimea. Big mistake”, we read on the 35-second clip, where the images of the explosions are then linked. Psychological warfare is raging, too.
“Crimea is a crucial military issue for both sides, specifies the former colonel of the navy troops Michel Goya. It is an area of important logistical flows and a rear base of the Russian army. the Kerch bridge, built by Moscow and inaugurated in 2018 to connect Russia to the Crimean peninsula. In this region are the large naval base of Sevastopol and the aerial one of Saki, which irrigate the entire southern area of the ‘Ukraine, from Kherson to Berdyansk and Mariupol, via Melitopol.’
Can the kyiv army hit positions in Crimea?
On August 17, the Ukrainian authorities threatened to destroy this structure with two arches (one car track and one railway track), 19 kilometers long. “This bridge is an illegal structure and Ukraine has not given permission for its construction. It harms the ecology of the peninsula and therefore must be dismantled. No matter how: voluntarily or not,” wrote on Telegram adviser to the Ukrainian presidency Mikhailo Podoliak.
A vehicle travels the 19 km bridge between Crimea and Russia on May 15, 2018, just before its inauguration by Russian President Vladimir Putin
afp.com/Alexander NEMENOV
The question is: how does the kyiv army manage to strike positions in Crimea, more than 200 kilometers from its closest positions? “For the moment, it’s a mystery, continues Michel Goya. In theory, Ukrainian artillery cannot reach targets located so deep. Even multiple rocket launchers cannot hit beyond 80 kilometers .”
A possible American intervention
In fact, the number of hypotheses is reduced. A land-based sting operation, special forces commando style, involving local partisans? Implausible so far from Ukrainian bases, especially since these attacks were launched in broad daylight. Could it be the work of a new Ukrainian long-range ballistic missile? “For now, the Ukrainians only have old Totchka-type missiles, which only carry 100 kilometers, explains the former colonel, a war historian. Have they managed to develop a longer range? he asks himself doubtfully.
“If so, it’s a warning to Moscow about the many ways in which Crimea, Putin’s great conquest from 2014, could now be targeted,” notes on his blog Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of studies. on the war at King’s College London. And to continue: “The Ukrainians are careful not to reveal how they mounted these attacks, preferring to let the Russians speculate, and the conjectures continue on social networks.”
kyiv denies having received any foreign aid, but secret American intervention cannot be ruled out. The United States has ATACMS missiles (Army Tactical Missile System) capable of firing multiple rocket launchers with a range of 300 kilometers.
If this thesis is confirmed, it would mean that Washington, which had pledged not to provide long-range weapons to fire on Russian soil, has crossed a new threshold in this war. “Except that for the United States, Crimea is not Russian, insists Michel Goya. It’s all the subtlety!”
Putin’s dilemma
One thing is certain: the Ukrainian assaults on the Crimean peninsula, hitherto preserved from the conflict and described by Vladimir Putin as “sacred land”, places the Russian president in the face of an insoluble dilemma.
“To recognize that this is a Ukrainian attack is for Russia to admit the weakness of its army to defend what it considers to be its territory, starting with its anti-aircraft defenses, which are supposed to be formidable. Bad for internal prestige and business”, summarizes on Twitter Ulrich Bounat, geopolitical analyst specializing in Central and Eastern Europe.
“To attribute responsibility to Ukraine would also mechanically imply for Russia to declare war on Kyiv, he continues. general, strongly rejected by the population.”
In Crimea, the head of the Kremlin finds himself faced with his contradictions. This is perhaps the other objective of the Ukrainians, who have been sharing en masse in recent days traffic jam images on the roads leading to the Kerch bridge, where we see Russians leaving Crimea in disaster.
“The war in Ukraine began with Crimea and must end with its liberation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted on August 9, just hours after the creation of a council “for the disoccupation of Crimea”. The conflict has certainly entered a new phase: the Crimean War has begun.