What lies ahead is “the most polarizing presidential election since the return to democracy” in the late 1980s, according to political analyst Adriano Laureno.
The two rivals have chosen highly symbolic locations for their official first caucuses. Incumbent President Bolsonaro visits Juiz de Fora in southeastern Brazil where he was stabbed during the 2018 election campaign. Lula begins his campaign with a visit to a car factory in São Bernardo do Campo, where he began his political career as a union leader in the late 1970s.
Uphill for Bolsonaro
— Bolsonaro has tried to build the story of a divine election around his presidency, in which the survival of the knife attack plays a central role, says Laureno to the AFP news agency.
— And Lula has always returned to São Bernardo at important moments in his political career, where he cultivates the image of himself as a man of the people.
According to the latest opinion poll from the institute Ipec, Lula leads with around 44 percent against 32 for Bolsonaro. If none of the candidates receives more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round on October 2, a decisive round will be held on October 30.
Lula entered the fray last March when the country’s highest court overturned a controversial prison sentence for corruption that had barred him from politics. The ex-president, who ruled the country between 2003 and 2010, had historically high popularity figures when he stepped down from power after lifting around 30 million Brazilians out of poverty with the help of a booming economy.
However, his reputation took a hit after the accusations of cheating.
Hope to attract voters
Bolsonaro shocked many with his fierce rhetoric and praise of the old military regime during the campaign for the 2018 election. But dissatisfaction with a limping economy, political turmoil and the giant corruption scandal surrounding the state oil company Petrobras helped him to a clear victory.
His campaign is hoping that a new welfare reform that recently took effect will attract voters from Lula’s camp ahead of the runoff.
Concerns have been raised that Bolsonaro, like his American role model Donald Trump, may oppose a possible election loss as he often claims, without evidence, that the country’s electronic voting system is rigged.