They promised peace and prosperity in Afghanistan, as well as a coalition government that respects women’s freedoms. The Taliban returned to power on August 15, 2021, after being driven out twenty years earlier by the United States and its allies. Karim Pakzad, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and specialist in Afghanistan, looks back on the results of this first year in power. A defeat, according to him, as much for the Taliban as for the Americans. Economic activity reduced to nothing, lack of recognition abroad and permanent repression… The movement has not kept any of its promises.
L’Express: A year after leaving Afghanistan, the United States killed the leader of Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in the center of Kabul. Is this a victory for American politics, in your opinion?
Karim Pakzad: Apparently, Joe Biden is very happy with himself, the Americans too. But for me, it is a symbolic failure. Everyone knew that al-Zawahiri was in an area under the rule of Haqqani, the Afghan terrorist network close to Al-Qaeda. On the other hand, we did not know that its leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani, also Minister of the Interior, had had him transferred to him in Kabul. The very fact that al-Zawahiri but also the leader of Haqqani are present in Afghanistan proves the defeat of the United States. Two years ago, they negotiated an agreement in Doha with the Taliban: the Americans agreed to withdraw their troops from the country on the condition that Afghan territory would no longer be used by terrorist organizations against the interests of the Americans and their allies. . They simply handed over power to the Taliban, without getting most of what they wanted, especially in terms of human rights.
Another example: the Americans were waiting for the formation of a coalition government. However, on the internal level, the Taliban have not succeeded in (or have not wanted to) include in the government political personalities, from civil society or even of ethnic influence different from the Taliban. Result, almost all are Pashtuns [NDLR : musulmans sunnites], like all the Taliban. It’s not even a definitive government yet, a year after they came to power.
According to you, the Haqqani network provided information to the US government to track down al-Zawahiri in an effort to improve their relationship. Why is international recognition so important to the Taliban?
From day one, the Taliban sought international recognition, which goes through that of the United States. They want to show that they represent the Afghan nation but no country recognizes them as legitimate. Unlike their first period in power (1996-2001), even their Qatari or Pakistani allies do not want to venture down the path of recognition so as not to go against the UN, which rejected their request for recognition. accession, and of Western public opinion, which is largely opposed to it. Russia and China, which, however, are not unfavorable to the Taliban, do not provide them with financial aid either. But after the fall of al-Zawahiri, I would not be surprised if we witness some changes in American policies vis-à-vis the Taliban in the months to come.
Without exchanges with foreign countries, how to manage the economy of a country of more than 38 million inhabitants?
Today, the Taliban are not financially supported at all and they do not even have access to their own money, their assets having been frozen by the United States. This year, the government’s budget is $750 million. It’s not even the amount of the American lottery. It is a tragedy, a total failure.
Before their arrival, infrastructure projects were entirely financed by foreigners and 70% of the Afghan state budget came from international aid. Today, all that is over. The Taliban are in daily management. For example, this year, the fruit and vegetable harvest is very good, but the peasants cannot export it because the economy is completely disorganized. It was already not strong until now, but now, without international help, it’s over.
The Taliban have announced a ban on the cultivation of poppy, from which opium and heroin are extracted, as they did in the early 2000s. However, it is a significant financial windfall that they seem to need . The United Nations estimates that the weight of the opium economy is equivalent to between 6% and 11% of Afghanistan’s GDP. Can they afford to keep that promise?
Harvest time is between September and October, so it is already too late for this year. Now we have to see if they are as serious as they were before. Within months, production had fallen to zero. If they really want to deprive themselves of drug money, given the catastrophic economic situation in which they find themselves, we can at least say that they have improved things on this point.
Regarding women’s rights, the Taliban had promised to leave them a certain space of freedom. Today, the situation shows that it is all relative…
If they promised this recognition of women’s rights, it was because they thought they needed them in certain areas, particularly in health, education and administration. Today, they are driven out. For example, last month, the administration of the Ministry of Finance asked the employees not to come to work anymore. A man of their family had to present himself there in their place. There have been women’s movements in Kabul and other big cities. They represented a certain hope for the Afghan opposition but the demonstrations were harshly repressed. They were driven out, imprisoned, humiliated. Afghan women are not even allowed to travel alone, including within the country, and some girls still cannot go to school. In summary, the few promises that the Taliban made to seek some international legitimacy are not being kept because they have not changed anything in terms of ideology since their last period in power.
There has been no progress, no hope for the Afghan women?
Some jobs have been created specifically for them, and did not exist 25 years ago. First, teachers for young girls in primary schools since a man is not allowed to teach women. This time they didn’t ban girls’ education altogether, only secondary schools. In hospitals too, they let women doctors work to avoid contact between the two sexes. Finally, the Taliban recruited militias of fully veiled women to enforce virtue-promoting measures and Sharia law.
When they came to power, the Taliban boasted of wanting to restore security in the country, especially for civilians. A year later, what about?
In the past week alone there have been two attacks against the civilian population in Kabul, claimed by the Islamic State (IS). Unlike Al-Qaeda, a true ally for the Taliban, Daesh is an enemy. On the ideological basis, both claim the application of Sharia but the Taliban have a particularity in the world of radical Islamist organizations: they are nationalist and ethnic. The government represents the Pashtuns of Afghanistan and seeks power in the country. This is the opposite of the universalism of IS, which wants to impose a world Islamist government.
The violence is therefore far from over, even though the Taliban claim to have ended the war against the Americans. Sometimes they are even the source of insecurity. Recently, there have been clashes against the Hazara community [NDLR : musulmans chiites, à l’inverse des Pachtouns]. They exercise power by maintaining a climate of ruthless repression. Fortunately for civilians, the Taliban have no interest in preventing the humanitarian aid provided by international organizations. They can’t afford it. They supply the Afghans with oil, flour, medicines, cash… I’ve even seen photos in which the Taliban were helping in the service.