(Finance) – The energy price increases and the invasion of Ukraine contribute to a downward impact on both the number of potential buyers and the selling prices of homes. According to Economic survey on the housing market in Italy – conducted jointly by Bank of Italy, from Tecnoborsa and fromRevenue Agency – at 1,465 real estate agents from 23 June to 20 July 2022, signs of stability in house prices prevail in the second quarter, with a balance between assessments of upward and downward slightly increasing compared to the previous survey. Prices for the current quarter are now expected to decline, after three quarters in which they were in positive territory. Despite the fact that the sales times and the average discount on the asking price are at their all-time lows, agents report a worsening of demand conditions: the share of operators who have sold at least one property has dropped, albeit remaining at high levels, and the negative balance between the opinions of an increase and a reduction in the number of potential buyers has widened. The new assignments to sell also confirmed their decrease. The outlook has deteriorated, with reference to both its own market and the national one.
In the Second quarter of 2022 the percentage of operators reporting stable sales prices compared to the previous period rose to 67.2 per cent (from 62.6 in the previous survey), while the percentage of those who see an increase fell (22.2 percent from 24.0), but also that of those who see a reduction (10.6 from 13.4). Consequently, the positive balance between assessments of increases and decreases in real estate prices rose slightly (11.6 percentage points, from 10.6).
There share of agencies that sold at least one home in the second quarter it fell to 84.9 per cent (from 87.6), however remaining at historically high levels. As in the previous surveys, more than three quarters of the operators sold exclusively pre-existing homes, while about 2 percent brokered exclusively new buildings. The negative balance between the opinions of an increase and a reduction in the number of potential buyers widened further in the second quarter (to -10.8 percentage points, from -2.8 in the previous one), especially in the face of a marked worsening in the areas urban, where the balance went to -15.4 percentage points (from -2.1). The percentage of operators who report an increase in new assignments to sell remains much lower than that of those who register a decrease (-36.3 points, from -32.9; table and fig. 3), as is the case for the tasks to be fulfilled (-36.5 points, from -36.7).
The average discount on sales prices compared to the initial requests of the seller it decreased further compared to the previous survey (to 8.0 per cent, from 8.5), thus reaching a new low since the start of the survey in 2009. The sales times remain substantially stable, at historic lows and at under 6 months (to 5.7 months from 5.8 in the previous survey).
The prevailing causes for termination of office according to about half of the agents, the value of the offers received, considered too low by the seller, or the prices requested, judged too high by the buyers, remain. The share of operators reporting difficulties in finding the mortgage by buyers increased by about 5 percentage points compared to the previous survey (to 23.9 per cent).
There share of sales financed by mortgage loan it fell to 67.5 per cent (from 69.7 in the previous quarter). The ratio between the amount of the loan and the value of the property increased slightly again, to 78.9 per cent, the highest value since the start of the survey.
There percentage of operators who declared that they had rented at least one property in the second quarter it increased slightly (to 78.7 per cent, from 77.1 in I). The balance between judgments of increases and decreases in rents decreased slightly, but remains positive (20.9 percentage points, from 22.5), compared to an increase in urban areas (20.1 from 16.9) more than offset by a drop in non-urban ones (21.4 from 26.6). Expectations foreshadow further rental increases for the current quarter, with a balance of 17.6 points (from 19.0). The average discount margin compared to the lessor’s initial requests continued to decline, reaching 2.3 per cent (from 2.8). The balance between the share of agencies that reported an increase in leased assignments and those that reported a decrease remained strongly negative (at -36.2 percentage points from -35.7).
The agencies’ expectations for the third quarter have worsened considerably, with regard to both its reference market and the national one: the balances between favorable and unfavorable expectations fell by more than 10 percentage points, reaching respectively -21.7 and -22.6. Pessimism also prevails over a two-year horizon (-18.7 for its own market and -23.3 for the national market). The balance between expectations of increases and decreases in new assignments to sell in the current quarter also shows a marked deterioration (-27.9 percentage points, from -14.7), largely due to the decline in activity during the months. summer. Expectations on the evolution of sales prices turn downward again, with a balance between expectations of increases and decreases which becomes negative (to -5.4 percentage points from 5.0) after three consecutive quarters in positive territory. According to the operators, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and recent increases in inflation they are influencing downwards both the number of potential buyers (for about 60 per cent of agents, in line with the previous survey) and the selling prices of houses (for about 40).
The share of agents who rate that lCovid-19 epidemic is inducing an overall expansion in the demand for housing continues to prevail over that of those who believe that it has negative repercussions, albeit to a lesser extent (26.9 percentage points, from 30.7 in the last survey). The balance, on the other hand, increased due to the demand for leases (to 24.9 per cent, from 20.3 per cent). The share of operators who believe that the pandemic is causing a decrease in the supply of housing remains about 10 percentage points higher than that of those who believe it is causing an increase. Negative judgments continue to prevail over positive ones for the rental offer, by 23.3 percentage points (from 26.4). At the same time, the balance between the share of agencies expecting a rise in sales prices following the health emergency and those who foresee a decline (16.9 percentage points, from 11.7), has grown again, as well as for rents (24.9 percentage points from 20.3 in the previous quarter). A majority of agents continue to expect such stimulus effects on the housing market to last until at least the end of 2022.
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