(Finance) – The fundamentals of the large Italian banks remain solid after the results of the first semesterwhich appeared “reassuring” as well as the forecasts for the rest of the year. Banks also appear well capitalized despite generous dividend distribution policies. This is what a report by Scope Ratingspublished after the last round of half-yearly results.
Economic growth, rising loans and interest rates, coupled with low credit losses are among the factors justifying this solid performance, the agency says, indicating that costs remain under control and asset quality is intact for now. .
The outlook for the full year remains robust – underlines Scope Ratings – as the core interest margin will increasingly benefit from the increase in interest rates, and will amply offset the withdrawal of the TLTROs. The outlook for commissions is less visible, but inflation and economic growth should be supportive. The cost of risk will remain low thanks to the low expected default rates.
Scope Rating believes that exposure to the Russian markets of UniCredit And Intesa Sanpaolo is under control, even if the exit strategies still appear unclear. After the initial provisions in the first quarter of the year, the impact on profit and capital should be limited, considering the financial strength of Russian customers and the resilience of local operations. The two groups – it is stated – are at the search for solutions to exit the market at low costwithout a clear strategy.
The outlook for 2023 is more uncertainas it is likely that the growth of Italy converge on its long-term trend “not very exciting“They also exist downside risks linked to the general economic context, to the energy crisis and topolitical instability.