scientists skeptical about lifting restrictions

scientists skeptical about lifting restrictions

COVID. As the executive announced its timetable for the gradual lifting of restrictive measures, the number of new daily cases has never been so high. In its latest opinion, the Scientific Council warns that the impact of the 5th wave of Covid-19 in France will have an impact on the healthcare system “sustainably until mid-March”.

  • The Covid-19 epidemic in France continues to progress this Thursday, January 20, 2022. 425,000 additional cases were recorded by Public Health France in 24 hours, bringing the seven-day average to nearly 340,000 new cases, a record. Hospitalizations continue to progress while critical care remains on a slow decline. The detailed report can be found in our article devoted to the figures of the Covid in France.
  • At the microphone of France info, this Friday, January 21, Professor Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectious and tropical diseases department at the Tenon hospital (Paris), deplored the fact that the measures announced by Jean Castex are, “from a health point of view, […] a little out of step with the opinions of the Scientific Council”, although “in line with what the French want to hear. And to alert: “Omicron made us understand that from a moment when you have viral circulations as intense as we see precisely in the 0-19 year old bracket or among those in their thirties, you have the place to an escape variant”.
  • the last opinion of the Scientific Council on the coronavirus epidemic in France, updated on January 20, also contrasts with the government’s desire to lighten health measures. Scientists believe that the fifth wave due to Omicron “is not over and its impact on the healthcare system will remain high”, although “partly manageable”, “until mid-March”. With a peak in hospitalizations expected for the end of the month, hospital services must be prepared to be under strain in the coming weeks but scientists believe that the hospital should hold on. The opinion invites to remain cautious because the forecasts do not take into account the rebound of the Covid observed at the start of the school year.
  • According to Jean Castex, who spoke in the evening this Thursday after a new Defense Council, there are nevertheless “good reasons to hope for a health improvement in the medium term” because Delta is “in clear reflux” and Omicron, which “is clearly less severe than the previous variants”, “is marking time in Ile-de-France”. This augurs encouraging “prospects” for the rest of the territory. A new timetable for exiting the Covid crisis in France has been unveiled, including the entry into force of the vaccination pass on Monday January 24, 2022 and a gradual lifting of measures from February 2 (see details of the announcements).

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09:11 – Test positivity rate also up

In the last epidemiological point of Public Health France (SPF), the health agency notes that the test positivity rate (proportion of tests that are positive among all tests) is on average, during the week of January 10 to 16, 24, 3% (against 19.9% ​​the previous week, an increase of 4.4%).

09:08 – The incidence rate still rising

According to Public Health France (SPF), which published its latest epidemiological bulletin on the Covid-19 epidemic in France this Thursday, January 20, the incidence rate (number of cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants) amounted to 3,098 positive cases per 100k inhabitants between January 10 and 16 (against 2,854 the previous week, an increase of 9%).

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Here is the detailed assessment of Covid-19 in France, according to data updated each evening by Public Health France (updated January 20, 2022):

  • 425,183 more cases confirmed by PCR (Ehpad included)
  • 128,114 deaths in total (Ehpad included), i.e. 245 more
  • 100,815 deaths in hospital, 245 more
  • 27,299 deaths in nursing homes (not updated)
  • 27,931 people currently hospitalized, i.e. 701 more
  • 3,842 people currently in intensive care, 10 less
  • 3,053 new hospital admissions (-134) and 301 in intensive care (-29)
  • 492,256 people discharged from hospital, i.e. 2,064 more
  • Test positivity rate: 26.77%, i.e. 2.49 points more
  • Incidence rate: 3,244.59 cases/100,000, i.e. 143.36 points more

According to last epidemiological point from Public Health France (SPF), published Thursday January 20, “the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 remained very intense, with a less marked increase in the number of cases and still significant hospital pressure” in week 02 (January 10-16 ). The incidence rate was over 3,000 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

  • In mainland France, the incidence rate corrected increases in week 02 and goes to 3,098 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (vs 2,854 in S01, i.e. +9%). The incidence rate exceeded 2,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants among those under 60 and remained highest among 10-19 year olds (5,506, +20%). It has increased the most among 0-9 year olds (4,012, +56%) and among those aged 90 and over (1,034, +20%). The screening rate was also highest among children: 20,633 among 10-19 year olds (-8%) and 19,082 among 0-9 year olds (-2%). The screening rate was down in all age groups. All ages combined, it was 12,766/100,000 (-11%). As for the positivity rate, it continued to increase with almost one in four tests positive in S02 (24.3%, +4.4 points).
  • The number of new cases diagnosed per day also increases sharply. In S02, there were 2,079,348 new confirmed positive cases, compared to 1,915,487 in S01. The effective reproduction rate of the virus stood at 1.27. The test positivity rate was also up (24.3%, vs 19.1% in S01, i.e. +4.4 points).
  • The number of new hospitalizations of Covid-19 patients decreased very slightly in S02. Indicators by date of admission reported 13,787 new hospitalizations (compared to 13,787, or -1%) and 1,844 new admissions to critical care units (compared to 12,280 in S01, or -19%).
  • The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is the majority in France, identified in 96% of tests by sequencing.
  • Vaccination against Covid-19 is still progressing: as of January 18, 2022, 78.0% of the total population had received a complete primary vaccination. 61.2% of those aged 18 and over had received a booster dose (72.2% among those eligible) and 78.8% among those aged 65 and over (87.6% among those eligible).

Follow the evolution of the coronavirus in your municipality thanks to the map below. Click on a department to display the list of municipalities. Also find all the details on this mapping and the complete point by city and by department in our article on the Covid map in France.

Click on a department to consult the list of its cities.

Since mid-October 2020, Public Health France has been communicating incidence data (number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants) at municipal level. The figures are at this stage communicated according to a scale (10, 20, 50, 150, 250, 500, 1000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The data is expressed over a rolling week, which means that it is calculated on a D-day from tests carried out between 3 and 9 days previously. To access information relating to the coronavirus in your municipality, enter its name in the search engine or click on its department in the map below.

As a reminder, the incidence rate corresponds to the number of new cases of Covid-19 over a period of one week, compared to the total population of a territory (country, region, department or municipality). This indicator is generally expressed as the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The screening rate gives the number of people having carried out a screening test for the coronavirus out of the total number of inhabitants, during the period. It is also most often expressed per 100,000 inhabitants. Finally, the test positivity rate gives the percentage of positive tests for the coronavirus, compared to the total number of tests carried out over the period.

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