Russia announced Monday, August 8, 2022 the suspension of planned US inspections of its military sites under the New Start treaty in response to US obstructions to similar Russian inspections in the United States. The New Start treaty is a key nuclear disarmament agreement between the two powers renegotiated in 2021. Explanations from Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the Ifri Center for Security Studies and coordinator of the Deterrence and Proliferation program.
RFI : What are the consequences of such a decision ?
Heloise Fayet : It should be noted that the inspections of military nuclear sites, which are provided for in the New Start agreement, had already been suspended in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which had obviously prevented the continued presence of inspectors whatsoever in Russia or the United States. So, suspension for political reasons of these inspections will a priori have no short-term consequences on security or knowledge of nuclear arsenals.
But it is a rather disturbing, even serious symbol of the lack of trust and above all of the deterioration in fact of trust between Russia and the United States on a subject as important as nuclear arsenals. The positive point being that for the moment the notifications are not suspended and that is another part of the New Star agreement which is also very important: the fact that a nuclear military exercise, such as a ballistic missile launch Russian, must be notified to the United States, so far it has not been suspended.
Could this decision ultimately put an end to this agreement? ?
The agreement itself is not very healthy if I can put it that way because it has been extended in 2021 against all odds. It was expected that this would not be the case and eventually President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin managed to agree at the last minute to extend it. On the other hand, it has a duration of five years, so until 2026, and it seems extremely unlikely in the current context of the war in Ukraine, and the lack of confidence between Russia and the United States that a new version of New Start to be signed in 2026.
This decision is very political and directly related to the conflict in Ukraine ?
This is a decision that comes in the context of the war in Ukraine. As we have seen, this war is taking place under the nuclear shadow, with, on the one hand, the maintenance of ballistic missile tests by Russia and, on the United States’ side, the cancellation of their own ballistic tests. We also remember the statements of Vladimir Putin on the power of the Russian arsenal. And so, effectively, it is another vestige, in quotes, of the Cold War and a coordination mechanism between Russia and the United States that is beginning to crumble.
Can we see through this decision by Moscow a desire to use this type of weapon ?
The use of nuclear weapons by Russia or any other nuclear-armed country is fortunately highly regulated. And for the moment, Russia is following its doctrine with extremely restricted conditions of use which are not reached. But we saw a whole Russian strategic report with, on the one hand, President Putin who was quite vehement, almost provocative, and who was supported by the Russian media which showed that if Russia used a nuclear missile, he could destroy Paris in six minutes, which is not the case. And then on the other, we saw an attempt at de-escalation led by other members of the Russian government, again relayed in the press, in order to avoid any misunderstanding of Russian strategy in terms of nuclear power.
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