Democrats are worried about President Joe Biden’s low approval rating. A perfect Republican election year could be ruined by too radical candidates.
Even though the Congress in the United States goes on summer break in August, policy-making does not stop, but rather speeds up.
The midterm elections in November are already around the corner. The Democrats and Republicans have both found out almost all their candidates in the primaries held during the summer, so the election campaigns can get off to a good start.
The pre-setup of the elections has been clear all year: the Republicans are disappointed with everything except a landslide victory.
President Joe Biden support has dried up to less than 40 percent (you switch to another service). It causes gray hairs for Democrats, as an unpopular president drags down the support of the party’s candidates in the midterm elections.
Historically, the party of the sitting president almost always suffers a defeat in midterm elections, especially in the House of Representatives, where the entire 435-seat chamber is voted for.
The Democrats currently have a very narrow majority of ten seats in the chamber.
FiveThirtyEight, a website focused on US elections and data journalism, predicts that the Republicans will catch on more than 80 percent (you switch to another service) with the probability of a majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans would probably know that by Kevin McCarthy becoming speaker Nancy Pelosi in place of.
Democrats have a better chance in the Senate
The 100-seat Senate currently has a 50-50 tie, as in addition to the 48 Democrats, two uncommitted senators generally vote with the Democrats.
In the event of a tie, the vice president Horrible Harris the vote has decided why the democrats Chuck Schumer has been allowed to act as Senate majority leader for just under a couple of years.
Leading Republicans in the Senate Mitch McConnell is now vying for the position of majority leader back for himself. It will come true if the Republicans get even one more seat in the Senate in the midterm elections.
However, the electoral map is unfavorable for Republicans this year.
A senator’s term lasts six years, so about a third of the seats in the senate are open in elections every two years.
Of the 35 senatorial seats up for election this year, 21 are currently held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. So the Republicans have more places to defend than the Democrats, which hurts the Democratic Party.
Democrats have funded Trump’s allies with millions
While Republicans want to highlight the unpopularity of President Biden, Democrats want to talk about the previous president who is in the middle of criminal investigations About Donald Trumpwhose popular popularity has remained Around 40 percent (you switch to another service).
Democrats believe that the divisive Trump and the candidates he supports will become a burden for the Republicans.
In the summer, the Democrats resorted to a bold strategy, in which the party financed the primary campaign of several extreme Republican representatives against more moderate Republicans. Democrats estimate that they will be able to more easily defeat candidates close to Trump in the midterm elections, who spread conspiracy theories about the 2020 presidential election.
Last week, Republican Congressman Peter Meijer Michigan became the target of both Trump’s barks and the Democrats’ election strategy.
Meijer belongs to the anti-Trumpism wing of the Republican Party. He voted to impeach Trump in the days following the congressional takeover.
Trumpian far-right candidates have defeated more moderate Republicans in the majority of party primaries. About the Republicans running for office in November at least 120 (you switch to another service) shares Trump’s lie that Democrats and Biden rigged the last election.
The Democrats’ strategy has received more and more criticism over the course of the summer.
Are Trump’s selection of candidates too radical for voters?
Stateside election law experts (you will switch to another service) have been worried about if those who believe in Trump’s conspiracy theories – or at least repeat them – get into power in the states after the election to organize future elections.
The persons elected as state governors and secretaries of state in midterm elections are largely responsible for organizing the 2024 presidential election and confirming the election results.
For example, those running for governor of Pennsylvania Doug Mastriano and Maryland Dan Cox both organize bus transportation to the takeover of the congress building in 2021. Arizona State, on the other hand all Republican frontrunners (you will switch to another service) have contested the legitimacy of the 2020 elections.
However, Democrats believe they will do well in state elections, as voters are angered by the Supreme Court’s recent decision to overturn universal abortion rights.
Last week, voters in Kansas surprised voters by overwhelmingly defeating a proposal to amend the state constitution in a way that would have given the state legislature the right to ban abortions.
Kansas is known as a conservative state that has voted for a Republican for president for over 50 years straight.
The voting results suggest that candidates who are absolutely against abortion can become a burden for Republicans.
The campaign is focused on a few crucial states
As always in US elections, this year too the most excitement is concentrated in a few tight states.
The Senate majority could be decided in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. In these states, Republicans are trying to win the seat currently held by a Democratic senator.
Tight competition is also known in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin. In them, however, the Republicans defend their own seats against the Democratic challenger.
Republicans trust that President Biden’s low popularity will propel the Republicans to victory in the Senate elections as well.
– The president’s popularity weighs on the Democratic candidates. Gravity will hit them at some point, predicted a pollster for the Republicans Robert Blizzard for the New York Times.
Conducting polls for Democrats Geoff Garin answered that the behavior of the voters this year does not seem so one-sided.
Garin pointed to recent polls in which the popularity of Democratic senators from Arizona, Georgia and Nevada is currently significantly higher than that of Biden.
– Voters evaluate the Democratic candidates and President Biden separately, Garin believed.
You can discuss the topic until Wednesday, August 10 at 11 p.m.