TAIWAN. Missile fire was carried out by China in the direction of Taiwan. The pressure does not fall in the region but the fear of a war is not very present. Explanations of the conflict.
[Mise à jour le 5 août à 12h17] Tension has risen a notch for several days between China and Taiwan. One of the main powers of the planet poses an offensive threat on the small island located 180km off its coast, whose status is special, between autonomy and belonging to the Chinese communist regime. If tensions are not new in the region, Beijing has decided to show a little more muscle by launching a series of military exercises near Taiwan, notably triggering several ballistic missile launches, some of which would have passed over the island claimed China, to land in a sea area belonging to Japan, according to the latter. In addition, Taipei (capital of Taiwan) assured that planes and warships had approached the waters of Taiwan during the day of this Friday, August 5, 2022. “We did not expect the malicious neighbor flaunt its might on our doorstep, and arbitrarily endanger the world’s busiest waterways with its military exercises,” Taiwanese Prime Minister Su Tseng-chang said.
A show of force which originated in a political visit to Taiwan which did not fail to react. While the island’s autonomy is only very little recognized on a global scale and its membership in China is not questioned, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi (the equivalent of Yaël Braun-Pivet in the National Assembly), traveled to this territory on Tuesday August 2 and Wednesday August 3 to reaffirm “America’s unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s dynamic democracy.” A visit that was not viewed favorably by Wi Jinping, the Chinese president, who refuses any emancipation of Taiwan in international diplomacy, especially since the United States has always recognized, since the 1980s, the one China principle including Taiwan.
Taiwan is an island located in the China Sea, 180km off the coast of southeastern China, between Hong Kong and Shanghai. The island is also positioned between the Philippines and Japan.
Could war break out between Taiwan and China?
The military exercises carried out by China around Taiwan are reminiscent of the maneuvers carried out for long weeks by Russia on the border with Ukraine, with the consequences that we know of. In this weakened international context, can China in turn decide to launch an offensive on Taiwan, which it wishes to officially and definitively attach to its regime? Former French ambassador to China, Sylvie Bermann wanted to be reassuring about the turn that events could take between Taiwan and China. “In this case, I don’t think there is any real danger,” she explained on France Inter, Wednesday, August 3. “China wants to show its displeasure. It threatened before the visit to try to dissuade: it didn’t work, so it is obliged to react, including on the military level. It’s a show of force with planes which enter the air defense zone, which is not the territorial space”, she detailed. Before moving forward: “China will not go any further today.”
For Pascal Boniface, political scientist interviewed the same day by LCI, “even if a military invasion (of China, editor’s note) cannot be ruled out, it seems difficult. Militarily it would not be easy.” Words that corroborate those of other specialists, Pascal Boniface adding that the territory is “well equipped by the Americans.” In addition, he judges that an offensive “would harm the economic growth of China”, in particular because of the supply of microprocessors by Taiwan to China. “So for the moment there are more disadvantages than advantages in attempting reunification by force,” he said.
According to Valérie Niquet, Asia specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research and author of Taiwan versus China“Beijing does not have the military means to invade Taiwan. It would be even more difficult than for Russia to cross the border with Ukraine”, she explained on European 1 Wednesday, August 3. Similar statements are made by Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program of the American think tank German Marshall Fund. “The likelihood of a war or a serious incident is low,” she said on Twitter.
On the other hand, these two specialists also agree that China should embark on a “psychological war.” “What she can do is show strength and hope it’s scary enough. […] We are in psychological warfare”, estimated Valérie Niquet, when Bonnie Glaser judges that “the probability that China will take a series of military, economic and diplomatic measures to show its strength and its determination is not negligible. It is likely to seek to punish Taiwan in multiple ways.”
Tensions between Taiwan and China are not new. It must be said that the status of the island is ambiguous. Taiwan was historically attached to China, before passing under the Japanese flag from 1895 to 1945. The territory returned to Chinese hands at the end of the Second World War. But the nationalists took refuge in Taiwan when Mao Zedong took power in China and thus formed a government on the island.
In 1949, following the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China, Mao Zedung came to power. His nationalist opponents go into exile on the island of Taiwan and form a government, which cuts all ties with communist China. The latter tries to regain control, in vain. Since then, China no longer has authority over the territory. Quickly, an alliance was forged between Taiwan and the United States.
Relations between Taiwan and China have been tense over the years and even broken between 1995 and 2008, a period during which an anti-secession law was signed, recognizing Taiwan’s autonomy but granting China the right to use “means not -peaceful” if the island were to become independent.
However, since 2016, the coming to power in Taiwan of Tsai Ing-Wen, a pro-independence president, has reignited tensions with China, Xi Jinping wishing to get his hands on Taiwan. However, the United States has always announced that it supports Taiwan against China, thus creating a particularly tense geopolitical climate.