TAIWAN. As announced, China began its military exercises this Thursday, August 4, 2022. Projectile fire in the direction of Taiwan was observed. From there to fear a war?
The essential
- China is carrying out its threats against Taiwan. Its army began its military exercises this Thursday, August 4, 2022 and began firing projectiles towards Taiwan.
- A blow of military pressure which comes the day after the first trade sanctions imposed by China on Taiwan.
- These decisions taken by Beijing are in response to the visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, who came to reaffirm American support for this autonomous Chinese province.
- An autonomy that does not please Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, who would like to regain control of Taiwan. By armed force? Many observers believe that China will not attack Taiwan militarily.
- Follow the latest information on these tensions between Taiwan and China live.
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09:41 – A response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit
The shooting exercises initiated by China in the Taiwan Strait therefore come after the 24-hour visit by the head of the American deputies, Nancy Pelosi. For China, these shots are “a necessary and legitimate measure” after the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives. According to a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “it is the United States who are the provocateurs. China is in a situation of self-defense.”
09:29 – China launches large military exercises around Taiwan
China began, this Thursday, August 4, its vast military exercises around Taiwan, announces the Chinese television CCTV quoted by AFP. Several projectiles were spotted near military installations in Pingtan, a Chinese island located near the maneuvers in progress. These exercises come in retaliation for the visit of the leader of the American deputies Nancy Pelosi, considered a provocation by China. Taiwan for its part says in a press release relayed by AFP “to prepare for war, without seeking war.”
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Taiwan is an island located in the China Sea, 180km off the coast of southeastern China, between Hong Kong and Shanghai. The island is also positioned between the Philippines and Japan.
Could war break out between Taiwan and China?
The military exercises carried out by China around Taiwan are reminiscent of the maneuvers carried out for long weeks by Russia on the border with Ukraine, with the consequences that we know of. In this weakened international context, can China in turn decide to launch an offensive on Taiwan, which it wishes to officially and definitively attach to its regime? According to two specialists, the probability is low. According to Valérie Niquet, Asia specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research and author of Taiwan versus China“Beijing does not have the military means to invade Taiwan. It would be even more difficult than for Russia to cross the border with Ukraine”, she explained on European 1 Wednesday, August 3. Statements that corroborate those of Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program of the American think tank German Marshall Fund. “The likelihood of a war or a serious incident is low,” she said on Twitter.
On the other hand, these two specialists also agree that China should embark on a “psychological war.” “What she can do is show strength and hope it’s scary enough. […] We are in psychological warfare”, estimated Valérie Niquet, when Bonnie Glaser judges that “the probability that China will take a series of military, economic and diplomatic measures to show its strength and its determination is not negligible. It is likely to seek to punish Taiwan in multiple ways.”
What are the origins of the tensions between Taiwan and China?
Tensions between Taiwan and China are not new. It must be said that the status of the island is ambiguous. Taiwan was historically attached to China, before passing under the Japanese flag from 1895 to 1945. The territory returned to Chinese hands at the end of the Second World War. But the nationalists took refuge in Taiwan when Mao Zedong took power in China and thus formed a government on the island.
In 1949, following the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China, Mao Zedung came to power. His nationalist opponents go into exile on the island of Taiwan and form a government, which cuts all ties with communist China. The latter tries to regain control, in vain. Since then, China no longer has authority over the territory. Quickly, an alliance was forged between Taiwan and the United States.
Relations between Taiwan and China have been strained over the years and even broken between 1995 and 2008, a period during which an anti-secession law was signed, recognizing Taiwan’s autonomy but granting China the right to use “means not -peaceful” if the island were to become independent.
However, since 2016, the coming to power in Taiwan of Tsai Ing-Wen, a pro-independence president, has reignited tensions with China, Xi Jinping wishing to get his hands on Taiwan. However, the United States has always announced that it supports Taiwan against China, thus creating a particularly tense geopolitical climate.