Published: Less than 10 min ago
China has managed to turn Nancy Pelosi’s expected visit to Taiwan to its advantage, believes China expert Niklas Swanström.
Here he answers four questions about the visit.
Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, is expected to visit Taiwan on Tuesday or Wednesday as part of a larger Asia trip, according to US media sources. The Speaker’s staff has not confirmed the information.
The plans have angered Beijing, which sees the island nation as Chinese territory. In a phone call, China’s leader Xi Jinping warned US President Joe Biden not to “play with fire” regarding Taiwan. Beijing said on Tuesday that the US will have to “pay the price for undermining China’s independent security interests” if Pelosi lands in Taipei.
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Why is China provoked by Pelosi’s possible visit?
– Beijing regards the visit as a threat to what they see as their inviolable rights, that Taiwan is part of China, says Niklas Swanström, head of the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISPD).
– But I also see it as China skillfully taking over the agenda. Nancy Pelosi’s visit is actually a defense of human rights and democracy. But China has managed to make the US appear as the irresponsible party, which threatens stability and creates a crisis through the visit. This is the picture you generally get in the media now, the risks are painted instead of the opportunities.
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How unique is this visit?
– Pelosi is the highest-ranking visitor in a very long time, and this indicates that the United States has approached Taiwan. It is a mark from Nancy Pelosi and also an indication that the US supports Taiwan as a democratic entity.
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Beijing has warned of “serious consequences” if Pelosi visits Taiwan. What could that mean?
– We can expect an increased intensity in violations of Taiwan’s airspace and the maritime border. I have a hard time imagining China attacking Taiwan militarily or forcing down Nancy Pelosi’s plane. But there is always the risk that mistakes will happen when China provokes.
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What would a visit by Pelosi mean for Taiwan?
– It is a recognition of the broad support that Taiwan has within both major political parties in the United States. It shows that support has perhaps never been stronger. But the visit is a double-edged sword for Taiwan. They receive support from the outside world, but this will also mean tougher action from China, in the form of everything from sanctions to boycotts.
Facts
Taiwan
Taiwan consists of a main island and several smaller islands in the Pacific Ocean, east of the Asian mainland. The nation functions in practice as an independent and democratic state, but has only been recognized as such by a few countries. China sees Taiwan as a breakaway region that should be part of China.
The conflict dates back to 1949, when the Chinese Nationalist Kuomintang Party led by Chiang Kai-Shek retreated to Taiwan after the civil war against the Communists. Taiwan represented China at the UN until 1971, when the Communist regime in Beijing took over that function. Since then, Taiwan has been diplomatically isolated, but thanks to a developed export economy and high-tech industry, the country has managed well nonetheless.
The country has been governed since 2016 by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), with President Tsai Ing-Wen. The DPP advocates formal independence.
China does not accept that other countries have relations with both Beijing and the Taiwanese government in Taipei.
Taiwan has roughly 23 million inhabitants.
Source: UI/Landguiden.
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