Published: Less than 20 min ago
Many are slowly starting to return to work and studies. This means more contact with other people indoors – and thus a greater spread of covid-19. Already in a few weeks, the number of sick people can skyrocket.
During the summer, the spread of the coronavirus increased week by week. More than half of Sweden’s regions have reported an increase in people sick with covid-19. The number of seriously ill and dead has also increased, but from low levels.
According to the ECDC’s forecast, the number of people infected will increase further in most European countries, including Sweden.
– We have had an increase in the number of people infected in the last nine weeks. Generally speaking, the spread increases even more when we are more indoors, says Director General of the Public Health Agency (FHM) Karin Tegmark Wisell to TT.
New virus, new scenario
The current computational models from FHM assume that it is the omicron variant of the virus that will continue to dominate.
– It usually takes about two weeks from the time we return to the workplace before the increase is noticeable, says Karin Tegmark Wisell.
This would mean that a further increase could come as early as the end of August.
– But it is very uncertain what the autumn will look like. As mentioned, our calculations are based on the omicron variant BA.2. Should a completely new variant appear, the scenario could look completely different.
What is most feared is a new virus that circumvents the protection of vaccines and previous infection – and that also leads to a more serious covid infection.
– We do not think that this development is likely, but we cannot completely rule it out either. A new virus can surprise and in the worst case throw us back to the same situation as last year, says Karin Tegmark Wisell.
Good basic protection
Even Ali Mirazimi, professor and virus researcher at the Karolinska Institutet, believes in an increased spread of infection this autumn.
– Yes, there will most likely be a peak then. The worst that could happen is that we get a new variant that is more vicious and escapes the protections from the vaccine and the previous infection.
He adds that the latest variants, however, have not been more vicious even though they have passed the protection.
– Based on that, we might get a new variant that can pass the protection, but which does not cause a more severe disease. And even if it were to be worse, those who are vaccinated, or who have been infected, basically have good protection, says Ali Mirazimi.
Karin Tegmark Wisell tells us that FHM will come up with new scenarios for a possible development at the end of August. The calculation is based on mathematical models for the spread of infection.
Several viruses in circulation
Then you also know more about which other viruses, for example rhinovirus that cause the “common” cold, are in circulation.
– When we return to work and school, several different viruses are gaining momentum, including rhino and influenza viruses in particular, says Karin Tegmark Wisell.
She does not believe that the “centaur”, which is the latest omicron variant, poses any major threat. It does have a somewhat higher infectivity than other omicron variants but does not cause a more severe disease.
When asked if we as private individuals can do something to reduce the spread of infection, Karin Tegmark Wisell answers:
– Stay at home if you have symptoms of a cold that could be covid-19 and listen to the vaccination recommendations that apply to you.
Ali Mirazimi agrees.
– I would also add that you should try to avoid congestion when we have a social spread, he says.
“Be humble”
That we would have to introduce new restrictions or close schools again is not very likely, believes Karin Tegmark Wisell.
– But local outbreaks cannot be ruled out. In a situation where teaching cannot be carried out, the head of the school can decide on closure independently of the legislation for covid-19, she says.
But in order for FHM to come out with sharper recommendations, we need to be affected by extensive morbidity with major consequences for society.
– Right now I don’t think it will be necessary, but at the same time we must be humble because we are still in a pandemic.
Facts
Virus variants
During the year, several new sub-variants of omicron have appeared. Those which according to the Public Health Agency are called “of special importance” are the four subvariants BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5.
BA.5, the latest sub-variant of the virus version omikron, continues to gain ground in Sweden.
In May, the first case of BA.4 was discovered in the country, but it does not appear to present a different disease picture than BA.2.
The latest variant BA.2.75 (the centaur) has not yet been confirmed in Sweden but has reached Denmark.
The mRNA vaccines that Pfizer and Moderna are now testing contain blueprints for proteins from both the omicron and the original Wuhan variant of the new coronavirus.
One hope is that vaccines directed against several virus variants can provide broader protection against future variants as well.
In parallel with the development of updated vaccines, higher doses of Pfizer’s original vaccine are also being tested to see if it provides better protection.
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