In recent days, there have been statements from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Russia plans to expand its targets from the east to Ukraine’s southern regions, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
During Saturday, there were reports of Russian attacks in yet another southern city – the strategically important port city of Odessa.
But the ambitions for a southern offensive do not rhyme well with the fighting situation, says lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi.
– From the Russian side, you have no ability to take anything significantly more than what you have, he says.
A response to Ukraine’s offensive
For a month now, Ukraine has focused on the southern part of the country around Kherson and Zaporizhzhya to liberate the occupied parts.
– Lavrov’s statement may be a response to the Ukrainian offensive. That you justify that you will fight there.
Can create dilemma for Russia
Paasikivi is careful to point out that information on what is going on in the southern regions is scarce, but that there are many indications that Ukraine has made some minor gains around Kherson. At the same time comes tasks from the ISW think tank that Russia is gathering strength to deal with the Ukrainian offensive in the south, including through rocket attacks and deploying mines.
That Ukraine is now stepping up in the southern part of the country can create a dilemma for Russia, Paasikivi believes:
– Should you continue to fight as hard as you can in Donbas, where you have pulled together most of your troops? Or should it be divided into Zaporizhzhya or Kherson?