(Finance) – For the economist Andrew Ferretti a government crisis and early elections would involve at least three serious risks for the Italian economy. “A government crisis would inevitably turn on all the lights on the Italian situation, a light on ours vulnerability energy and a beacon on our growing debt public of over 2,700 billion – Ferretti explained -, with the aggravating circumstance that if political instability were to block the correct earthing of the PNRR all the new debt we contracted under the Recovery Fund by magic would turn from good debt to bad debt. ”
“But a beacon would also light up on ours system banking that she has in her belly 400 billion of Italian public securities “, he added.” The problem is that these lights on our most delicate points can generate a crisis of distrust generalized on the ability of our policy to manage the current situation which would obviously incite the speculation and would put ours under pressure spread“, underlined the economist, citing the situation created in 2011 after the end of the Berlusconi government and the installation of Mario Monti in Palazzo Chigi, with the difference that Mario Draghi is no longer at the ECB.
The second risk identified by Andrea Ferretti is that ofisolation. “Until now, the peoples of Europe have faced the various emergencies – pandemic, energy, Ukraine – staying in the same boat. Today the big risk is that a empty governmentalblocking the correct grounding of the PNRR and related reformscan somehow also block our growth by isolating our economy from the economy of other European partners exactly as it did in the past “, he explained.
The third risk is that relating to the action of the ECB. “Not to be underestimated is that a period of instability politics in Italy it would make it very difficult for the ECB to launch one anti-spread shield without conditionality for beneficiaries. In fact, it is one thing to design an anti-spread shield with the mission of protecting countries hit by speculative waves not justified by real economic data but it is quite another thing to make the peoples of the North digest a shield that can intervene without conditionality in defense of a single nation. which presents a tightening spread due to political-electoral disputes “, highlighted Ferretti.
“Who has triggered this government crisis or does not understand i risks that makes our economy run or, trivially, puts its own interests parties to the interests of Italians. I would favor this second hypothesis “, concluded the economist.