The all-consuming war will continue for a long time, according to Major General Pekka Tover, because neither side can expect a military victory leading to an armistice. He does not believe in a political peace agreement under the current Russian leadership.
The war started by Russia in Ukraine is entering the third phase, estimates the former intelligence chief of the General Staff Pekka Toveri To .
In terms of equipment, the points between Russia and Ukraine are equal: Russia is rolling in numbers, but the equipment Ukraine receives from the West is more modern, and neither side has the resources to resolve the situation.
The possibility of political peace also seems small, so Toveri does not foresee a quick decision for war.
1. What are the three phases of war?
In the first phase, at the beginning of the war, Russia attacked on a wide front and tried to capture large cities. However, the attack collapsed with heavy losses and long distances, and Russia was forced to retreat.
In the second phase, Russia concentrated its forces on a smaller area and announced that its goal is only the takeover of Donbass and the possession of the captured southern coast.
– It was traditional Russian warfare, where positions were bombarded with heavy artillery and advanced a couple of hundred meters a day. In this slow consumption war, Russia’s material warehouses came into their own, describes Toveri in a phone interview.
The phase lasted three months, until Russia achieved a partial victory at the beginning of July, i.e. captured the Severodonetsk region and thus completely took control of the Luhansk Oblast, says Toveri.
After the maintenance break, Russia has started a new attack with the aim of capturing Donetsk Oblast. According to Tover, it is already a more demanding task, because the Ukrainians are prepared to defend the territory, which is at least 40 percent in their possession.
2. What is the significance of attacks on Russian weapons depots at this point?
According to Pekka Tover, what makes the third phase of the war interesting is that Ukraine has succeeded in hitting the Russian weapons depots with Himars rocket launchers it received from the West in two weeks.
– Artillery warfare requires a huge amount of supplies, but the Ukrainians have destroyed the ammunition stores so that the Russians have difficulty supplying ammunition to their artillery. It may be that they no longer have the conditions to continue the attack, says Toveri.
According to Tover, the Russians’ use of fire collapsed last week. Part of the reason is the operational break, but the losses of supplies also play a role.
According to Tover’s estimate, Russia has fired more than 3,000 long-range missiles at Ukraine. Better and more accurate missiles are running out, and the risk of civilian casualties increases with the use of older equipment.
However, hitting civilian targets is not only due to the inaccuracy of the equipment, says Toveri.
– Since the ability is not sufficient to punish the armed forces of Ukraine, revenge has been taken in recent days by striking more and more civilian targets – which Russia of course claims are military targets.
The reactions also speak for themselves.
– Up to the Kremlin, the West has been threatened with retaliation if such support is given. You can see that it hits hard, says Toveri.
Russia is also hastening negotiations with Iran. Iran has promised Russia more helicopter fleet, with which the country could fight Ukraine’s long-range attacks better than at present and destroy fast-moving rocket launchers.
3. What significance does the prolongation of the war have for the parties?
Pekka Toveri estimates that Ukraine will strengthen in a few months. More help is coming from the West, and training has also been received. Ukraine’s available personnel reserves are also greater than in Russia, which has difficulties in recruiting and obtaining modern equipment.
According to Tover, the Ukrainians have gathered their forces in recent weeks and claim to start operational counterattacks to get the Russians out of the area. It still remains to be seen whether Ukraine’s strengthening will be enough to counterattack, which requires more forces than defense.
However, the long-term outlook is more favorable for Russia. The war is going to be expensive, and the Russian economy is still in pretty good shape, while the Ukrainian economy is suffering.
– The further we go, the more dependent Ukraine is on Western support, both armed and financial, says Toveri.
According to him Vladimir Putin counts on the fact that the West’s interest in supporting Ukraine will begin to wane as winter approaches, the price of energy will continue to rise, and the supporting countries’ own economic situation will become difficult.
It is of great importance how the EU and NATO are able to keep the support front united when the pressures and the demand for a ceasefire start to increase.
4. Why does even a ceasefire in Ukraine seem distant?
The parties are far from each other, and there has been little attempt at negotiations since the early stages of the war.
Pekka Toveri, the former intelligence chief of the General Staff, does not believe that a political peace agreement will be reached as long as Russia has the current political leadership.
Ukrainians’ bitterness also grows as the war progresses, which further weakens the desire to make peace with the aggressor.
An armistice would be enough for Russia, but for Ukraine it would be too heavy a price given the current situation. If a truce were to be made along these lines, Ukraine would lose ten percent of its territory again, and the threat would not recede.
– When Russia had built up its armed forces again in a year or so, it would continue the attack from even better starting positions. Therefore, the willingness to make any kind of peace in Ukraine at this stage is quite low.
According to Tover, a truce would also require a military victory from either side, which would force the other to hope for a truce. Neither Ukraine nor Russia, however, have sufficient strength for a quick military solution.
When moving to the third phase, the scores are equal in terms of equipment: Russia has more mass, but the equipment is older. The equipment that Ukraine receives from the West is mostly modern, but the country is dependent on the West’s help and its long-term commitment.
“Unfortunately, the all-consuming war will continue for a long time,” Toveri estimates.
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