Ukraine’s support under threat, the line of sanctions against Russia in danger – the Italian government crisis would have a heavy price

Italy was on the brink of a government crisis on Thursday. Prime minister Mario Draghi tendered his resignation after the Five Star Movement, one of the country’s ruling parties, refused to support the budget proposal.

The government was supported by a clear majority of the parliament and the country’s president Sergio Mattarella refused to accept the Prime Minister’s resignation. Despite the extension thus obtained, there is now a lot at stake, reminds the academy researcher specializing in Europe Timo Miettinen.

– Draghi’s position is exceptional, says Miettinen.

– He is a civil servant leader and regent who comes from outside the parties, Miettinen adds.

As the former head of the European Central Bank, Draghi is known across the continent. His departure from the post of Italian Prime Minister would undermine confidence in Italy. At the same time, the EU’s enthusiasm to decide on new economic support measures would decrease.

– Passing through the recovery fund agreed in 2020 alone requires the credibility of the administration from Italy. The same applies to possible rescue packages.

Draghi has been the guarantee of this credibility. If he is replaced by someone else, Italy’s ability to advance its goals may weaken, Miettinen, who specializes in Europe, estimates.

This would have an impact on how Europe responds to the challenges of rising prices and a possible recession in the fall. Miettinen reminds that Italy has been seen as a risk factor for the European economy, whose interest rates on government bonds have been monitored. The importance of Italy is great above all because of the size of its economy.

The Italian government crisis would also be reflected in the war in Ukraine. Chancellor of Germany By Olaf Scholz and the President of France Emmanuel Macron alongside Draghi has been central in defining the sanctions against Russia.

According to Miettinen, Italy has stood out in terms of reducing energy dependence:

– Italy has been one of the most important countries that have imported natural gas from Russia. However, Draghi’s government has been able to reduce gas dependence faster than Germany, says Miettinen.

According to Miettinen, new sources of gas energy have been found, for example, in North Africa.

However, the Italian political culture also has a place for favoring Russia, especially at the extremes of the political field.

– For the populist parties competing for power, the relationship with Russia is a way to distinguish themselves from the ruling elite and the rest of Europe, Miettinen reminds.

Due to the increase in the price of energy, one may have to ask why Italy could not proceed like Hungary, which has received negotiated relief from sanctions.

– The question is whether it will be possible to tighten the pressure screw, says Miettinen.

– Oil has already been agreed upon, and the hope is that the gas sanctions should also come into force.

Despite the turmoil in Italian politics, Miettinen estimates that most parties do not want early elections.

– In Italy, the leading parties are populist in style, and compete with each other with various initiatives and exploits, describes Miettinen. – However, the country’s government is broad-based, so the tantrums and protests of one group will not necessarily bring it down.

According to Miettinen, protecting Italy’s economic reliability is in the interest of the governing parties.

– Time will tell how long Mario Draghi remains the guarantor of this system.