a vote Monday in the Assembly, the government in danger?

a vote Monday in the Assembly the government in danger

MOTION OF CENSURE. The Nupes tabled a motion of censure against the government which will be debated Monday in the National Assembly. But this motion is likely to fail. Explanations.

[Mis à jour le 8 juillet 2022 à 17h25] “In the absence of a vote of confidence, we have no choice but to submit this motion of no confidence.” Tabled on Wednesday July 6, a few minutes before Elisabeth Borne’s speech in the Assembly, the motion of censure of the Nupes will be debated between the deputies on Monday July 11 at 4 p.m. But a priori, the government has nothing to worry about. Because this motion of censure should only be supported by the four groups that are behind it: the rebellious, the socialists, the ecologists and the communists. This represents 151 votes, far from the absolute majority of 289 votes, necessary to overthrow the Borne government. A government which however no longer has an absolute majority won over to its cause since the legislative elections. But the right and the extreme right seem determined to let the left vote alone. “We want to take advantage of the situation to make progress,” said Olivier Marleix (LR) on July 6. On the side of the RN, it is a question of embodying a respectable and constructive opposition.

But what is a motion of censure, exactly? Tabled by at least 58 deputies, a motion of censure triggers a vote of confidence in the National Assembly which, if it wins a majority, causes the fall of the government. Except that the oppositions often have a hard time agreeing to vote together on the same motion. This is the difference with a vote of confidence: while the oppositions would have had no trouble voting together against a question of confidence in the government, they are more reluctant to support a motion tabled by an opposing group. So that Elisabeth Borne could even emerge strengthened from this motion of censure if, as is likely, it fails.

Who will vote for the motion of censure of the Nupes?

On Wednesday July 6, the deputies of Nupes tabled a motion of censure against the Borne II government. However, they should not be able to rally the rest of the opposition to their attempt to overthrow the Borne government. “A motion of censure before having started, it seems quite childish as an approach, totally useless. I think that we will not lend themselves to this game”, thus indicated Olivier Marleix, president of the LR group in the Assembly, Tuesday July 5 on LCI. “We will not join our voices to those of LFI”, decided the deputy LR Annie Genevard on BFMTV.

Same story on the side of the spokesperson for the National Rally, Sébastien Chenu, who lamented, Monday, July 4 on RTL, that “the far-left deputies want to block everything, break everything. We are not there to block everything, break everything.” Presumably, the motion of censure should therefore win the 151 votes of the Nupes intergroup, as well as the vote of a few independents and non-members, but not more.

When will the motion of censure against the Borne government be voted on?

The motion of censure of the Nupes will be debated and voted on by the deputies on July 11, at 4 p.m. If article 49 of the Constitution provides for a minimum period of 48 hours between the filing and the vote of the motion of censure, the deputies finally benefit from five days of reflection. The four parliamentary groups of Nupes tabled the motion of censure on July 6, only a few minutes before Elisabeth Borne’s general policy speech.

What is a motion of censure?

The motion of censure has been a term at the heart of parliamentary news since the end of the legislative elections. Its objective: to lead, if it is adopted, to the resignation of the Prime Minister as well as of his government. The motion of censure can be spontaneous, directly tabled by deputies. They must be at least 58, or one tenth of the National Assembly. To be adopted, it must collect 289 votes “for”, that is to say the absolute majority of the hemicycle. In the event of a relative majority (a majority of “for” but less than 289), it is not adopted.

The motion of censure can also be provoked by the government when it engages its responsibility during the use of article 49.3: this article makes it possible to have a text adopted without debate in the Assembly, unless a motion of censorship, filed within 24 hours, does not win an absolute majority. Under the Fifth Republic, 51 motions of censure were thus filed in the case of the use of 49.3 (we speak of “offensive motions”), but none won a majority.

How many motions of no confidence have led to the overthrow of a government?

Since the establishment of the Fifth Republic, 58 “spontaneous” motions of censure have been tabled against 20 prime ministers. But only one was adopted, in 1962 (read below). It must be said that bringing such a procedure to fruition is not easy. The hardest part being, for the oppositions, to agree on the same text. In July 2018, for example, Les Républicains, but also, with the same voice, the groups Nouvelle gauche, La France insoumise and Gauche democrate et republicaine had tabled a motion of censure against the government of Edouard Philippe after the revelations of the Benalla case. But LR had not voted for the motion of censure from the left, which had nevertheless supported that tabled by the right. Result: neither had succeeded.

A motion of censure almost succeeded in 1992, against the reform of the common agricultural policy. While François Mitterrand, the President of the Republic, only had a relative majority in the National Assembly, the RPR (ex-LR) and the centrist parties UDF and UDC had agreed to table a motion of censure, soon joined by the Communist Party. The motion had failed to reach a majority by 3 votes.

The motion of censure was passed only once in the history of the Fifth Republic. It was in 1962, when General De Gaulle, President of the Republic, announced his intention to introduce direct universal suffrage in the presidential election. In the National Assembly, the Head of State only had a very relative majority (206 deputies). While the minimum number of votes required was 241, the motion of no confidence was supported by 280 deputies. It had therefore led to the resignation of the Prime Minister, Georges Pompidou. Except that De Gaulle had refused the resignation of his Prime Minister, dissolved the National Assembly, and called new legislative elections… from which he emerged with an enlarged majority, rising to 233 deputies.

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