Pekka Toveri, the former intelligence chief of the General Staff, estimates that Russia is trying to tire Ukraine and the West that supports it into an unfavorable truce.
10:34•Updated 11:04
A brutal artillery war continues in eastern Ukraine, as Russia seeks to take control of the entire Donbas region. Russia controls almost the entire Luhansk region and is now trying to do the same in the Donetsk region. Among other things, the town of Slovjanski has been the target of intense fire.
– For four or five days, the desired terrain will be leveled with artillery, after which the surviving Ukrainians will have to retreat, and then the area can be occupied relatively easily, former intelligence chief of the General Staff, major general (evp) Pekka Toveri describes.
According to the comrade, the Russian armed forces have learned a lesson from the beginning of the war, when the Russians tried to advance very quickly all the way to the capital, Kiev, and then had to retreat humiliatingly.
– They went back to what they know, which is to concentrate power in a small area and use massive artillery superiority, says Toveri.
– It is slow but exhausting. If there is enough material, it will succeed, and of course the Russians will have enough of that material for a long time to come.
On the other hand, the Ukrainians have been getting better material from the West all the time and are able to strike from Russia’s rear, especially the ammunition warehouses and logistics system.
Between July and August, we will see how it affects the Russians’ ability to continue their attack, says Toveri.
– The parties are fairly equal in terms of these prospects, neither of them has the ability for a quick military solution.
The Ukrainians are now in a hurry to get arms aid
The Ukrainians have emphasized that they need help from the West now and quickly. In the hunger war, time is not on their side.
Comrade says that arms aid to the West should be more coordinated – the patchwork of different cannons and ammunition makes maintenance and logistics difficult.
Individual weapon systems do not bring happiness by themselves. In addition to long-range rocket launchers, the ability to target targets and avoid Russian electronic jamming, which has intensified in the fighting in eastern Ukraine, is needed.
It would be important for Ukraine to be able to take back territories, for example in the important region of Kherson. There is still no accurate picture of the Ukrainians’ ability to counterattack.
Toveri estimates that Ukrainians are worried about the weakening of Western support if the war drags on into late autumn and winter and the recession starts to hit the economy of Western countries.
That’s exactly what the Russian president is counting on Vladimir Putin on the other hand, counts, Toveri estimates. The war increases the prices of fuel, energy and food, which is felt in the citizens’ wallets. In turn, it creates pressure on the decision-makers of Western countries that some kind of truce should be brought about in the war.
Putin, on the other hand, is in no hurry, because Russia gets money from energy exports and the Russian state economy is running.
– The fact that Russian citizens are suffering and people’s living standards are falling all the time is of no importance to Putin. People don’t take to the streets in Russia to demand that the economy be fixed, says Toveri.
The war of attrition also wears down the morale of the troops
In the early stages of the war, the Russians suffered clearly greater losses than the Ukrainians. In the current consumption battles, these settings have been leveled.
This way of waging war, a stand-in defensive battle, is hard on the Ukrainians, especially when it loses the most experienced officers and troops.
Because of that, soldiers who were quickly recruited into the local forces and received rapid training have had to be thrown into places that are too hard. There have also been reports of soldiers running away from Ukraine.
– Inexperienced military forces suffer bigger losses, and that affects morale, says Toveri.
The Ukrainians currently have the advantage of having more reserves from which to train and equip new troops.
– The Russians have struggled with this aspect, says Toveri.
On the other hand, in Russia, the weakening of the citizens’ economy facilitates the recruitment of the armed forces, when more and more people remain unemployed and at the same time the Russian state can afford to pay reasonable remunerations to contract soldiers.
– In a period of two to three months, Ukraine can become militarily stronger than Russia, but the situation can slowly start to turn in Russia’s favor, says Toveri.