UKRAINE. After five months of war, Russia is not loosening the noose around Ukraine. 18 people were killed in a bombing in Odessa. The latest news from the war in Ukraine.
[Mis à jour le 1er juillet 2022 à 15h51] The war in Ukraine continues. Russia does not seem to want to loosen its grip. On the night of Thursday June 30 to Friday July 1, a building in the Odessa region, in the south-west of Ukraine, was bombed. Two missiles were reportedly fired from a strategic aircraft. A provisional toll reports 20 dead and 38 wounded. In a statement, Germany expressed its anger: “The Federal Government condemns the rocket attack by the Russian army (…) The Russian side, which speaks again of collateral damage, is inhumane and cynical .” This attack came as the Ukrainians recaptured a strategic island in the Black Sea from the Russians.
Thus, on Thursday June 30, the spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, Igor Konashenkov, indicated that “as a sign of good will, the Russian armed forces have accomplished the objectives set on Serpents’ Island and have withdrawn their garrison there”. And to add: “Russia does not oppose the efforts of the UN to create a humanitarian corridor allowing the export of grain production from Ukraine.” For his part, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zalouzhniy, hailed “the liberation of a strategic territory”: “I thank the defenders of the Odessa region who have done their utmost to liberate a strategically important territory .”
This Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with his Belarusian counterpart. He explained, “We stand for unconditional respect for international law. We will maintain this position with our Belarusian allies and our many other like-minded partners who share these approaches.” Believing to be in their right, the Russians do not seem determined to leave Ukraine. So how can we envisage an end to the conflict in Eastern Europe? In this regard, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, assured, on Friday 1 July, during an address to the Ukrainian parliament: “Europe will do everything in its power to help Ukraine win this war.”
rus terrorists attacked Odesa region last night. According to Operational Command South and Odesa RMA, at least 18 people died. These are the same X-22 missiles that were fired at the mall in #Kremenchuk.
Its time to officially recognize russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. pic.twitter.com/2V38jYn6ho— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 1, 2022
Ukraine-Russia war: the map of the conflict
For a few days, “the front has hardly moved even if the bombardments have continued in all sectors”, estimates Cédric Mas. According to the military historian, “both sides are obviously reorganizing”. To the south, Russia took control of the entire coast along the Sea of Azov and part of the Black Sea. To the east, the border region between the two countries, Vladimir Putin’s army has extended its hold, which already controlled part of it. Ukraine has laid down its arms in Sieverodonetsk, after several weeks of fighting. Russia continues its advance and is now targeting Lysychansk, as well as its surroundings, which Ukrainian soldiers are still trying to defend. Another current Russian target: Kharkiv and its region. In the south of the country, after losing control of Serpents’ Island on Thursday, June 30, Russia bombed a building in the Odessa region. The provisional toll reports 20 dead and 38 wounded.
While the positions seem almost fixed, what future for the conflict? Can the war between Ukraine and Russia end? Yes, depending on which country launched the offensive. The condition: that its neighbor capitulate, as announced by Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, on Tuesday June 28: “the Ukrainian side can end [au conflit] during the day. Nationalist units must be ordered to lay down their arms, Ukrainian soldiers must be ordered to lay down their arms and all the conditions set by Russia must be implemented. Then it will all be over in one day.” But it’s hard to imagine Volodymyr Zelensky ordering his troops to lay down their arms.
Especially since, for his part, the Ukrainian president called on the member countries of the G7 (Germany, Canada, United States, France, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom) to “do their utmost to try to put an end to this war before the end of the year.” Between military logistical support and the strengthening of international sanctions against Russia, Ukraine expects real support from the West to force the Russians to put an end to the conflict.
But international pressure will not be enough. A peace agreement, or at least a ceasefire, must be signed between Ukraine and Russia. However, if negotiations had been conducted during the spring, everything has been stopped since April 22. And each blames the other. It’s hard to imagine the lines moving.
Until the Cold War or the exhaustion of the troops?
“After the sacrifices suffered, the devastation, the atrocities, the human and material losses, Ukraine is not going to make peace just like that. It will be satisfied if necessary with a provisional and precarious ceasefire, but counts given what it has suffered, the country will go very far to recover its sovereignty and territorial integrity”, explains Jean de Gliniasty, research director at IRIS, former French ambassador to Russia, on the Iris website. He adds: “The Russians will do the same, because it will be necessary to justify the launch of the invasion and the special military operation. Russia will not return the Donbass and probably not the Black Sea coast. And given the losses material, international risks and sanctions that no one in Russia thinks will be lifted, the reasoning, at least at this stage of the war, is that lost for lost, we go on.”
The war between Ukraine and Russia should continue, but will get bogged down in the months to come, warned Voldoymyr Zelensky on June 27, speaking of the “harshness of the winter when it is more difficult to fight”, before that, “at the end of the year, we will enter a situation where the positions will be frozen.” For Jean de Gliniasty, “the situation will at best end in a cold war with a line of demarcation that is a little difficult, even hot; at worst, we will continue to witness military operations until one of the two adversaries is exhausted .”
What is the outcome of the war between Ukraine and Russia?
In four months of war, the human toll of the conflict is particularly heavy. According to the United Nations, which is trying to make a daily assessment, the latest assessment dated Sunday June 26, 2022 suggests that 4,731 civilians have been killed since the start of the conflict, including 4401 adults and 330 children. A balance sheet that only includes civilian and not military losses. The UN, however, believes that “the actual figures are considerably higher, as receipt of reports from some locations where intense hostilities took place have been delayed and many reports are still awaiting confirmation.” On the military side, no official figures are communicated. If Ukraine said on Friday July 1 that 37,750 Russian soldiers were killed, RFI reported the death of 15 to 20,000 Russian soldiers since the beginning of the conflict, while Ukraine would lose a hundred men a day, that is to say ten thousand combatants.