Looking towards Europe but dependence on Russian gas: Moldova on a thread

A stroll with all smiles in the neat alleys of a park in Chisinau, followed by a coffee in a chic district of the capital. This June 15, the meeting between Moldovan President Maia Sandu and her counterpart Emmanuel Macron was filmed from every angle. “This visit is a recognition of our existence, comments Cristina Sirbu, a young Moldovan volunteer who helps Ukrainian refugees. Often, we don’t even know where we are on a map…” A glance at the world map is enough to understand the strategic position of this former Soviet republic. Landlocked between Romania and Ukraine, this country as big as Belgium found itself in the front row after the Russian invasion on February 24. Refugees have swarmed there by the thousands. Inflation reached 29% over one year and the country is on the verge of a major crisis. The fate of Moldova is indeed closely linked to the Ukrainian port of Odessa, 70 kilometers from its border, from where it imported the majority of its goods before the war. The Russian blockade put an end to this trade. What will happen if it drags on? “If Odessa falls, we fall,” repeat many Moldovans.

During his trip, Emmanuel Macron wanted to be reassuring. “France stands by your side today and it will stand there tomorrow.” A week later, he, in fact, pushed the Moldovan candidacy for integration into the European Union. “This wish to join the European family is perfectly legitimate”, underlined the French leader – before adding, on Twitter: “In two decades, [la Moldavie] has embarked on a huge effort of transformation and modernization.”

Obtaining this status is a crucial step. More than 56% of Moldovans are in favor of joining the EU, according to a poll by the iData institute (May 2022). “We know that this status is symbolic, nuance however Cristina Sirbu. Integration will take time, even if, in fact, we are already very close to the EU!” Indeed, one out of four Moldovans already has a passport Romanian. For the most part, these are Romanian speakers, ie two thirds of the population (2.6 million people, to which must be added a vast diaspora in Europe and Russia). Their approach is all the more natural since Moldova found itself from 1918 to 1940 under the authority of Bucharest. A majority of its inhabitants have kinship ties with Romania.

Overflowing borders

On the bumpy roads that cut through the majestic Moldavian vineyards, located at the same latitude as Burgundy, Europe is already very present. Renovations of dilapidated roads or construction of new tracks are financed by the European Investment Bank. Since 2007, 364 million euros have been invested in these transport infrastructures, according to the European Commission. “Fight against violence against women, water treatment, support for civil society… We have around a hundred projects underway”, clarifies Janis Mazeiks, ambassador of the European delegation to Moldova. These ties have been strengthened since the beginning of the war. Brussels has promised 695 million euros in aid to Moldova to manage the refugee crisis. “We have stepped up our collaboration with the European agency Frontex, while our borders are overwhelmed by the traffic of Ukrainian heavy goods vehicles”, adds Rosian Vasiloi, the head of the border police, in his office adorned with portraits of Stefan Cel Mare , a national hero of the 15th century.

In this tormented context, this new status of candidate will bring many advantages, estimates Adrian Lupusor, of the economic think tank Expert group : “Our country is extremely sensitive to external shocks and to the actions of Moscow. This status will trigger the implementation of urgent reforms, such as the fight against corruption.” Since her election to the presidency in 2020, Maia Sandu, a pro-European liberal educated at Harvard, has made it her spearhead. In May, the arrest of Igor Dodon, the former pro-Russian president (2016 to 2020), marked public opinion. For its part, the Kremlin described as “persecution” the investigation opened by the Moldovan judges into its political ally for “state treason”, “passive corruption”, “funding of a political party by a criminal organization” and “illegal enrichment”.

This affair illustrates the complex situation of Moldova: a gaze turned towards Europe, but Russian pressure still latent. Geographically, the country is influenced by both powers – a position shaped by its history. After its attachment to present-day Romania in 1940, Moldova was occupied by the Soviet Union, before obtaining its independence in 1990. Moscow is nonetheless very present. A small pro-Russian autonomous region in the south-east of the country, Gagaouzia still faces east. Not far away, Transnistria, also Russian-speaking, declared itself independent in 1992. Some 1,500 soldiers from the former 14th Russian army would still be garrisoned there. “The Kremlin keeps her on a drip, paying her 1.2 billion dollars each year,” says Igor Botan. For this political scientist, these two territories, which have a total of some 600,000 inhabitants, do not however threaten Moldova’s candidacy for the EU: “Gagaouzia had no reaction to this request and Transnistria simply denounced the fact of not having been consulted”.

Will it last? Since the start of the conflict, the Moldovan authorities have tried to remain neutral, displaying their support for Ukraine while trying not to offend Moscow. The country wants to join the EU, but at the same time displays its categorical refusal to become a member of NATO. This balancing act is understandable when looking at the map of energy supplies. Chisinau depends heavily on Russia for its gas, which transits through Transnistria. At the end of 2021, the Russian giant Gazprom threatened to cut off the tap if Chisinau refused to pay 40% more for its gas. “Russia is blackmailing us, making us pay for our independence,” judge Nicolae Mocanu, director of TVR Moldova, a pro-European television channel. An agreement was finally reached between the two parties. Will Moscow respect it, while Moldova has officially requested its integration into the EU? The question arises all the more acutely as Chisinau has hardly any energy alternatives. For the time being, it cannot count on deliveries of European gas, up to five times more expensive and promised to become scarce since the Kremlin decided to reduce its exports. “Here, sums up the young volunteer Cristina Sirbu, many Moldovans dread winter.”