Rarely, Jean-Yves Le Drian will have been so cheerful, even teasing, in public. For his transfer of power on May 21, after five years at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Breton allowed himself a few jokes and diplomatic levities in front of the press. His victim? Former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, defeated in the election the same day. “This result suits me very well”, said Le Drian, with a smirk, before denouncing Australian decisions with regard to France which were “of a brutality, a cynicism and a form of notorious incompetence “. “It makes me happy to say it,” concluded the former French minister.
For France, a geopolitical humiliation
Last summer, Le Drian was on the front line of the naval battle which was played out between Paris and Canberra. To everyone’s surprise, Australia then canceled the historic contract with France for the construction of 12 submarines, in favor of the United States. This commitment to 56 billion euros takes water and the Franco-Australian relationship with.
Morrison’s government took the opportunity to announce a new strategic alliance in the Pacific, called Aukus, between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. “On the French side, the history of submarines was not so much an economic question because the industrial Naval Group does not lack orders, underlines Philippe Le Corre, researcher at Harvard Business School. The snake was above all difficult to swallow geopolitically. France is at the forefront of European strategy in the Indo-Pacific and the degree of humiliation was commensurate with the investments made by Paris in this relationship with Australia.”
Like Le Drian, Emmanuel Macron savored his revenge on May 21, with the defeat of Scott Morrison in the legislative elections. During the diplomatic quarrel, after recalling his ambassador from Canberra, the French president had dropped in front of the cameras: “I know he lied to me.” “Even if it is difficult to blame her for Morrison’s electoral defeat, this response from Macron was powerful, confides former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (2015-2018) to L’Express. This incident with France has added fuel to the fire and the personality of the Prime Minister has become the major subject of these elections. If Emmanuel Macron was the only person Scott Morrison had lied to, it might not have had so many consequences…”
China, a common threat in the Pacific
Touched by Macron, sunk by the voters, the conservative Morrison leaves his post to a Labor Party, Antony Albanese. One of his government’s priorities on the international scene is to “reset” the counters with France. He began by announcing compensation of 555 million euros for Naval Group at the beginning of June, before going in person to the Elysee Palace on July 1. “For Paris, the return to power of the Labor Party, historically Francophile, is a good excuse to resume normal relations with Australia, believes Philippe Le Corre. These are two Pacific countries with a huge maritime domain, which have every interest in fight together against China’s rise in the region.”
In recent years, Beijing has been weaving its web discreetly in the South Pacific. But in 2022, China has decided to step up a gear. After signing a “security pact” with the Solomon Islands in April, which notably provides for the intervention of Chinese forces in the event of social unrest, Minister Wang Yi traveled at the end of May to a dozen small Pacific states in order to deepen economic and military relations. “Like France, Australia is concerned about the growing influence of China in these strategic areas, which imposes its own values and priorities on economically weak states, and therefore very vulnerable, warns Malcolm Turnbull. We need to convince these countries with better options, be they security or economic. We have more financial resources, it’s up to us to deploy them.” After hitting rock bottom, the relationship between France and Australia seems doomed to go up.