Major General Pekka Toveri estimates that neither Russia nor Ukraine has the ability to make a clear military victory.
Russia’s armed forces have managed to make significant progress in the fierce fighting in eastern Ukraine the night before Friday.
Former Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff Major General evp Pekka Toveri says Russia has failed to make any groundbreaking gains.
According to some reports, the Ukrainians would be withdrawing from the city of Severodonetsk. Conquering the city would mean that Russia would control almost the entire Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine.
According to a comrade, the takeover of Luhansk would be a setback for Ukraine but not a clear turning point.
– The Russians get a small tactical victory by taking over the Luhansk region. However, the Ukrainian armed forces are still fighting.
According to a comrade, the Russians have won their large use of troops and material, which has eroded their ability to continue the war.
– Ukrainians will have to withdraw somewhat and it is, of course, a bitter piece for them. But there is no breakthrough or military victory that threatens Ukraine’s armed defense. Jumi just goes on, neither has the ability for a clear military victory.
Progress from Severodonetsk would be difficult for the Russians. Next door is the Donetsk River, on the other side of which is the city of Lysitshansk, which is higher in the terrain.
– Attacking a higher terrain under fire across the river would be really challenging. It has been bad times for the Russians to try to attack the river during this war.
The comrade recalls that when the conquest of Ukraine failed, the story in Russia was changed so that no attempt was made to conquer the whole of Ukraine, but only the Donbas of eastern Ukraine, ie Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russians would take the territories under their protection and drive the Ukrainians away.
Putin acknowledged the independence of the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk before attacking Ukraine.
A comrade thinks it would be difficult for Russia to advance to Donetsk after the heavy fighting in Luhansk. Almost half of Donetsk is still in the hands of Ukrainians.
Ukraine may strengthen in the summer
The war has now been fought for two months on Russian terms. At the beginning of the war, Ukraine was able to fight more strongly against Russia on its own territory.
When Russia launched an attack in the Donbass in April, fighting has taken place in a small area and the Russians have had a strong fire superiority.
– The Russians have been able to use their superiority, to consume the Ukrainians. That is why they have taken over the territories.
A comrade estimates that Ukraine may strengthen relative to the Russians during the summer.
– The Russians have a shortage of crews, they have not received much replenishment. Ukrainians have more staff in use. The Russians have also lost a lot of equipment, and replacement equipment has been obsolete since the 60s tanks.
Due to sanctions imposed by the West, Russia may not be able to produce modern military equipment while Ukraine receives the equipment as a donation from the West.
Ukraine would need more weapons
To survive the war properly, Ukraine would need more weapons. The rocket launchers provided by the United States, for example, are the right kind of armament, according to Tover, but much more would be needed.
– They could deprive the Russians of the ability to continue the attack, perhaps even helping Ukraine to attack.
However, Ukraine has the potential to prevent Russia from making a clear victory in the war.
Instead, Ukraine’s victory would require a much tougher sanction for Russia from the West and a lot of military support.
– Russia will not leave the regions except by force, it should be driven out militarily, Tarkka says.
Russia also has better economic conditions to continue the war, as Ukraine’s economy has collapsed.
You can discuss the topic until Saturday, June 25th. until 11 p.m.