LEGISLATIVE POLLS. In the latest polls for these legislative elections, the absolute majority seems compromised for the presidential party. The Nupes, without managing to impose a cohabitation, is given in second place.
[Mis à jour le 17 juin 2022 à 18h16] The final polls for these legislative elections should fall in the hours to come. This Friday at midnight, the legislative campaign will be officially closed and no more polls can be published. But the projections of recent days all point in the same direction: if the coalition Ensemble! formed around the presidential party is given the lead, it has little chance of obtaining an absolute majority. It should still remain in the majority with 265 to 305 seats according to the latest study byIpsos Sopra Steria for France Televisions.
According to the polls, the Nupes is also not on track to achieve its objective of obtaining a majority in the Assembly. But it could console itself by becoming the first opposition group, which would sign a strong comeback of the left at the Bourbon Palace. The projections count on 140 to 180 Nupes deputies elected in the second round of the legislative elections this Sunday, June 19. Projections which corroborate the results of the Ipsos poll, according to which 53% of French people want Emmanuel Macron to obtain the majority, against 46% who hope to see Nupes win and Jean-Luc Mélenchon appointed Prime Minister.
The Republicans would be relegated to the rank of third force in the Assembly with all the same 60 to 80 elected, against a hundred today. Despite this minority, the right could play a pivotal role since the presidential majority could need it to carry out certain policies. Finally, the National Rally would not wait for the objective set at a hundred seats but it would manage to form a group of several dozen deputies for the first time since 1986.
Another survey, this time signed by the institute Elabe for BFMTV and Express bets on a similar result although it grants more seats to the left-wing coalition with a range of 150 to 200 elected deputies, a result that will be insufficient to win ahead of Ensemble! The presidential majority would remain the first group with 255 to 295 elected against 350 during Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term. A hypothesis that at best leaves the absolute majority accessible even if these chances are slim. Let us keep in mind all the same that the results of the polls are only a snapshot of the trends at a given moment and do not predict the results of the legislative elections.
After the results of the first round of the legislative elections, the pollsters agree that the candidates Together! could obtain the parliamentary majority on the evening of Sunday June 19. But none places the number of seats slider with certainty above the 289 level. With as many or more deputies, Emmanuel Macron secures an absolute majority, but with fewer elected representatives, the majority would only be relative governance of the country complicated.
The latest projections from the Ipsos Sopra Steria institute for France Télévisions published on Friday June 17, estimate between 265 and 305 the number of winnable seats for Together! (LREM, MoDem, Horizon, Act). The Nupes would then obtain the largest number of deputies, with between 165 and 210 places at the Bourbon Palace. An honorable result but which would dampen the coalition’s hopes of being in the majority and imposing cohabitation on the head of state. Despite a sharp decline, Les Républicains would keep between 60 and 80 of their seats and would become the second opposition force whereas they were the first so far. Finally, the National Rally could finally have a parliamentary group of 20 to 40 deputies.
Please note: the projections established on the evening of the first round of the legislative elections are not the result of polls. The institutes that develop them for television channels are based on the actual results of several hundred polling stations representative of the diversity of the constituencies, spread throughout France. With these starting data, mathematical models will come to give a range of the probable number of seats for each political bloc. Algorithms whose challenge is above all to anticipate the reports of votes in the 577 constituencies.
What did the last poll of voting intentions say about the 1st round of the 2022 legislative elections?
The latest survey from the Ifop institute for LCI, published Friday, June 10, gave the Nupes (26.5%) just ahead of Ensemble! (26%), when the RN collected 19% of the voting intentions, far ahead of LR (10%) and Reconquest (5.5%). A result similar to the very latest Harris Interactive and Toluna barometer for Challenges (June 8 to 10) and to the Ipsos-Sopra-Steria surveys for France Télévisions, Radio France and Le Monde, giving the two formations equal or almost, in front of the maximum RN 20%. The match between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon was therefore announced and the pollsters made no mistake.
The various polls published in recent weeks gave Together! and the Nupes at the top of the voting intentions, ahead of the National Rally, this trend in the polls having been maintained throughout almost the entire campaign. The movement led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the alliance formed around Emmanuel Macron have been credited with 25 to 28% of the votes in a pocket handkerchief in recent weeks, which is what the first round delivered as a balance.
Difficult to produce reliable polls for the legislative elections
Please note: the votes for the legislative elections are very different from those cast for the presidential election. Other components structure this vote: the weight of the parties established in the territories, the political personalities appreciated locally, the political rapprochements at the level of the constituencies, and the method of voting, majority in two rounds. All this makes the job of pollsters difficult. But if it is impossible to make precise projections, certain elements must be taken into account to measure the balance of power.
In the 577 constituencies in mainland France and overseas (excluding the constituencies of French nationals living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came out on top, in the first round of the presidential election, in 256. Marine Le Pen in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon in 104, Valérie Pécresse in… none. But remember that in 2017, Marine Le Pen managed to lead the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; the far-right party had only managed to elect 9 deputies.