They wanted to bring good news. This Thursday afternoon in kyiv, two Prime Ministers and two European Presidents spoke out in favor of granting Ukraine “immediate candidate status” for membership of the European Union. A status that is above all symbolic but hoped for, even demanded, by the Ukrainians since the start of the war.
This announcement is a small surprise, a political blow even on a European scale, because by appearing alongside Volodymyr Zelensky, the Italian Mario Draghi, the German Olaf Scholz, the Romanian Klaus Ioannis and the French Emmanuel Macron have grilled politeness at the European Commission. Its president, Ursula von der Leyen, was to set the tone this Friday, June 17 at a press conference by presenting, as provided for in the European Treaties, the opinion of her institution, before the leaders of the EU countries decide during the European Council of 23 and 24 June.
In the end, it won’t have a good role: the announcement effect having passed, attention will now be focused on the downsides, the conditions laid down for progress on Ukraine’s European path. In kyiv, Emmanuel Macron also specified that the granting of candidate status would be accompanied by a “roadmap” and that “the Commission would set the framework for the decision”. “At the moment in Europe, everyone wants to have the good role, there are too many leaders who think about the place they will leave in history”, squeaks a diplomat in Brussels.
For Ukraine, a disrupted accession calendar
During her own visit to Ukraine on June 11, Ursula von der Leyen outlined the directions in which efforts from kyiv would be expected. “You have done a lot to strengthen the rule of law, but reforms must be implemented, for example to fight corruption or to modernize the administration,” she explained to President Zelensky. The President of the Commission is expected to present substantial requests this Friday.
But, unusually, these efforts will likely have to be made after the coveted candidate country status has been granted. “It’s a reversal of the timetable, the conditions will have to be met to open future accession negotiations, deciphers a European diplomat. But granting candidate status now allows us to respond to Zelensky’s call to which we could not remain indifferent.”
The very political maneuver of France, Italy and Germany – the three economic powers of the EU – also aims to win the support of member states still reluctant to the idea of this hand extended to kyiv. Difficult to oppose now, while promises have been made to the Ukrainian president in front of the international press, they would give the impression of going against the direction of history.
In recent days, the Dutch, Danes, Finns, Portuguese and Spaniards have not concealed their opposition. “The status is just a symbol, the next morning nothing will have changed, plagues a diplomat. It will bring nothing to the Ukrainians and it creates an obligation that we will not be able to honor.” Besides, Olaf Scholz was not convinced when he left Berlin, but he allowed himself to be convinced by his two traveling companions. On the French side, if the idea of expanding Europe does not enthuse, “Emmanuel Macron has no difficulty in granting the status because it has no legal consequences”, believes a European source.
Mistrust of other EU candidates
To put an end to reluctance, it will be necessary to guarantee that Ukraine does not obtain preferential treatment in the long term, when others have been waiting in the European antechamber for years. Moldova and Georgia are also knocking on the door. But it is above all the Western Balkans which are waiting for a gesture, nearly 20 years after the Thessaloniki summit which made them dangle a “European perspective”. Seeing Ukraine take a big step all of a sudden while they are progressing very slowly through the twists and turns of the enlargement process could turn them on. Their leaders will be in Brussels on the morning of June 23, in the first part of the summit of the Twenty-Seven. “The European Union is not credible in terms of enlargement because it no longer wanted to grow, points out an expert on the subject. This time, we have to show that we can move forward.”
Otherwise, the risk would be to see these countries – Serbia in the lead – let themselves be seduced by Chinese, Turkish or Russian sirens… The President of the European Council Charles Michel has thus become involved in the Bosnian dossier to push communities across the country to work together again and make some progress. North Macedonia and Albania continue to wait for the launch of formal accession negotiations blocked by Bulgaria in the name of cultural conflicts. “We cannot only deal with the status of Ukraine, deciphers a European source. Otherwise we will not succeed. We must also deal with the other candidatures because that will weigh in the opinion of certain Member States.”
For this, another piece of the puzzle is on the table: the idea of a European political community (or CEP) put forward by France. For the Minister for Europe, Clément Beaune, it could be an “airlock” while waiting to join the European Union. The French recently detailed their idea in a one-page document. “The enlargement policy does not offer the political framework necessary to respond to the urgency of the historical and geopolitical necessities born of the war against Ukraine”, they plead. The CEP would make it possible to coordinate on a continental scale on foreign policy, climate, energy or health. “We lack a meeting room for all of Europe”, summarizes a high-ranking diplomat. Paris has embarked on an offensive of conviction because this CEP is greeted with great suspicion by countries which suspect France of wanting to make it an alternative to EU enlargement.
A few days ago, diplomats feared the sequence to come by the end of the month, fearing that the unity of the Twenty-Seven would break on the file of the Ukrainian candidacy during one of these Homeric summits of which European leaders have the secret. By betting on announcing their choice upstream, Paris, Berlin and Rome hope to have reshuffled the cards and changed the perspective. We will know in the coming days if this bet pays off.