LEGISLATIVE POLLS. As the second round of the 2022 legislative elections approaches, a recent poll provides some strong elements. If the Macron camp hopes to obtain an absolute majority, the Nupes remains in ambush. Here are the latest trends…
[Mis à jour le 16 juin 2022 à 19h01] A few days before the second round of the 2022 legislative elections, a new OpinionWay poll for Les Echos and Radio Classique published on Thursday June 16 gives “a slight advantage to the presidential majority” in the duels against the candidates of the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union , according to Bruno Jeanbart, the vice-president of the polling institute. Indeed, of the 264 majority/Nupes clashes, Emmanuel Macron’s camp would collect 51% of the vote. “The advantage is not huge, but it confirms that there are a few more vote reserves for the majority in these constituencies,” explains the pollster.
On the other hand, the survey shows that there is “no dynamic on one side or the other”, says Bruno Jeanbart. “The balance of power, with the slight advantage for the majority, seems quite stable compared to the first round,” he adds. Uncertainty is present a few days before the second round of legislative elections. If the coalition Together! (LREM, Modem and Horizons) is aiming for an absolute majority (289 seats in the National Assembly), it could win between 275 and 305 seats, according to OpinionWay. For its part, Nupes is credited with 165 to 210 seats. What shower the hopes of obtaining a majority within the hemicycle. For the other parties, LR with the help of the UDI could save the furniture with between 60 to 75 seats. The RN could, for the first time since 1986, obtain a group in the Assembly, since it is credited with 20 to 40 seats.
Another poll carried out by Odoxa Backbone Consulting for Le Figaro and published on Thursday June 16 is a little more pessimistic for President Emmanuel Macron’s camp. He could get between 252 and 292 deputies. Only the most favorable hypothesis would therefore allow the Macron camp to cross the threshold of 289 seats, synonymous with an absolute majority in the Assembly. According to the projections published by Le Figaro on Thursday, the camp led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon could win between 179 and 225 seats. Let’s keep in mind that the polls are not an exact prediction of the vote.
After the results of the first round of the legislative elections, the pollsters agree that the candidates Together! could obtain the parliamentary majority on the evening of Sunday June 19. But none places the number of seats slider with certainty above the 289 level. With as many or more deputies, Emmanuel Macron secures an absolute majority, but with fewer elected representatives, the majority would only be relative governance of the country complicated.
The latest projections from the OpinionWay institute for Les Echos and Radio Classique published on Thursday June 16, estimate between 275 and 305 the number of winnable seats for Together! (LREM, MoDem, Horizon, Act). The Nupes would then obtain the largest number of deputies, with between 165 and 210 places at the Bourbon Palace. A fine performance which would remain insufficient to impose cohabitation on the Head of State. Despite a sharp decline, the Republicans would retain between 60 and 75 of their seats and would become the second opposition force when they were the first so far. Finally, the National Rally could manage to form a parliamentary group of 20 to 40 deputies.
Please note: the projections established on the evening of the first round of the legislative elections are not the result of polls. The institutes that develop them for television channels are based on the actual results of several hundred polling stations representative of the diversity of the constituencies, spread throughout France. With these starting data, mathematical models will come to give a range of the probable number of seats for each political bloc. Algorithms whose challenge is above all to anticipate the reports of votes in the 577 constituencies.
What did the last poll of voting intentions say about the 1st round of the 2022 legislative elections?
The latest survey from the Ifop institute for LCI, published Friday, June 10, gave the Nupes (26.5%) just ahead of Ensemble! (26%), when the RN collected 19% of the voting intentions, far ahead of LR (10%) and Reconquest (5.5%). A result similar to the very latest Harris Interactive and Toluna barometer for Challenges (June 8 to 10) and to the Ipsos-Sopra-Steria surveys for France Télévisions, Radio France and Le Monde, giving the two formations equal or almost, in front of the maximum RN 20%. The match between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon was therefore announced and the pollsters made no mistake.
The various polls published in recent weeks gave Together! and the Nupes at the top of the voting intentions, ahead of the National Rally, this trend in the polls having been maintained throughout almost the entire campaign. The movement led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the alliance formed around Emmanuel Macron have been credited with 25 to 28% of the votes in a pocket handkerchief in recent weeks, which is what the first round delivered as a balance.
Difficult to produce reliable polls for the legislative elections
Please note: the votes for the legislative elections are very different from those cast for the presidential election. Other components structure this vote: the weight of the parties established in the territories, the political personalities appreciated locally, the political rapprochements at the level of the constituencies, and the method of voting, majority in two rounds. All this makes the job of pollsters difficult. But if it is impossible to make precise projections, certain elements must be taken into account to measure the balance of power.
In the 577 constituencies in mainland France and overseas (excluding the constituencies of French nationals living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came out on top, in the first round of the presidential election, in 256. Marine Le Pen in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon in 104, Valérie Pécresse in… none. But remember that in 2017, Marine Le Pen had managed to lead the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; the far-right party had only managed to elect 9 deputies.