SET (SET). Emmanuel Macron is advancing towards the legislative elections supported by the Together coalition. But the alliance of the parties LREM, MoDem, Horizons and Agir is already fragile, especially since the results of the polls raise fears of a lack of majority in the National Assembly.
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They survey all the markets, pose for photos with both candidates and locals, and say a few words of support. Approaching 2e round of the legislative elections, the result of which will be known on Sunday June 19, 2022, all the living forces of Together (ENS) are pounding the pavement to try to convince voters to slip into the ballot box a ballot bearing the name of the personality representing the coalition of parties (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) which organized to allow Emmanuel Macron to win a majority of deputies in the National Assembly. Despite this aggregation of political forces representing what appears to be one of the country’s main political currents (without however being in the majority), the President of the Republic is not certain of obtaining at least 289 elected officials at the Bourbon Palace. A scenario that would make the governance of a solid alliance on the front end even more complex, but not without ulterior motives, between internal enmities, the desire to become the pivot and the ambition to take over from an Emmanuel Macron doomed to leave his place. in five years.
As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has forged an alliance in order to obtain the majority in the legislative elections. However, the content of the coalition set up in 2022 is very different from that of five years ago. By a simple agreement with the MoDem of François Bayrou, the President of the Republic moved to a confederation bringing together six political parties in addition to the party he founded in 2016. Gathered under the banner “Together” – which is not not a party-, LREM, the MoDem, Agir (Franck Riester), Horizons (Edouard Philippe), Territory of progress (Olivier Dussopt), In Common (party of Barbara Pompili chaired by Philippe Hardouin) and the Radical Party (Laurent Hénart) have sealed a pact of support for Emmanuel Macron, leading negotiations for the distribution of constituencies. Thus, according to the agreement reached, 400 nominations were reserved for LREM, between 101 and 110 for the MoDem, as well as 58 for Horizons, the other formations each winning less than 10 constituencies.
Before 2e round of the legislative elections, the various parties that make up the Together coalition are showing public unity “to show that we have the same sense of responsibility” as François Bayrou declared alongside Edouard Philippe during a meeting public Wednesday, June 15. The objective, to allow Emmanuel Macron to thwart the forecasts and have an absolute majority in the National Assembly. However, behind the scenes, rivalries rage on many levels.
♦ LREM more fragile in the 2022 legislative elections than in 2017
First, it should be noted that Emmanuel Macron’s party, La République en Marche, is no longer as powerful as when it emerged in 2016, to propel the then ex-Minister of the Economy at the Elysee. At the end of the legislative elections of 2017, the President of the Republic had 314 deputies stamped LREM and 47 for his ally of the MoDem. Then splits gradually took place, sometimes towards the center-left with the “Territory of Progress” party of Minister Olivier Dussopt, sometimes towards the center-right with the Agir party of Franck Riester then Horizons of Edouard Philippe. So many components that the Head of State had then under his control but which have since taken their political independence, while keeping their loyalty to the President of the Republic. In 2017, LREM had won 314 seats, ending however with 268 deputies after several splits and, therefore, without an absolute majority on its own
♦ Edouard Philippe and François Bayrou each seek to play a pivotal role in the Together coalition
A loyalty retained for the presidential election and the legislative elections, all the dissident political families of La République en Marche having supported Emmanuel Macron for these two elections. However, the Head of State had to come to terms with these new imposed allies to avoid having too many opponents of the same current (or almost) in the constituencies. Consequently, if 400 constituencies were granted to LREM candidates, 110 were granted to representatives of the MoDem and 58 for Horizons.
The coalition is not without risk, however, especially in relation to Edouard Philippe. If the former Prime Minister is always shown to be loyal to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathetic rating (favorite political personality of the French), grant him both the status of ally and dissident of weight in the event of disagreement. Because if Emmanuel Macron does not obtain the majority (289 seats) with the only LREM candidates and it is the deputies stamped Horizons who allow him, the political force of his ex-tenant of Matignon will only be increased tenfold, him who can then brandish the threat of not voting in favor of a text emanating from the government or the parliamentary majority. François Bayrou could also do the same if they have a sufficient number of MoDem deputies to tip the scales.
♦ Tensions linked to the negotiations to be conducted in the event of a relative majority?
The structure of the presidential camp, made up of several political branches, could also see some cracks appear quickly if it does not obtain an absolute majority. Indeed, differences within Ensemble cannot be ruled out on the choice of the political family(ies) with whom the government could discuss to pass its laws. The macronist camp being made up of personalities from the left, starting with Elisabeth Borne, but also Richard Ferrand, Olivier Vrean, Christophe Castaner or Olivier Dussopt, as well as from the right, such as Gérald Darmanin, Bruno Le Maire, Edouard Philippe or even Pierre-Yves Bournazel, objections and tensions on the content of the negotiations to be conducted could break out, not without causing some turmoil within the coalition.
♦ The 2027 presidential election already in the sights, who will succeed Macron?
The maneuvers carried out to help Emmanuel Macron, while detaching themselves from it, were not launched without a second thought by Edouard Philippe or even François Bayrou. In sight, already, the presidential election of 2027, in which the President of the Republic will not be able to represent himself. What open the field of possibilities on the profile of his successor. A battle to take the reins of La République en Marche will inexorably begin, while the leaders of the allied parties will inevitably seek to gather a majority behind their project. Hostilities which could not be without consequence on the legislative work and considerably weaken the coalition of deputies behind Emmanuel Macron.
If in April, the suspense was minimal on the outcome of the vote, this week between the two rounds of the legislative elections is, this time, classified as high risk by LREM. It must be said that the high score of the left, which Together will challenge in 276 constituencies, according to the count of Le Monde, could put the presidential coalition in the National Assembly in difficulty. Indeed, if the Macronists (or relatives) will be present in the 2nd round in 417 constituencies, the Nupes will also be present in 380 territories. And the projections of the polling institutes do not give La République en Marche and its allied parties the guarantee of winning the majority at the Bourbon Palace. Indeed, according to Ipsos-Sopra Steria, Ensemble would only win 255 to 295 seats. The majority is 289, while the Nupes could obtain between 155 and 190. Suffice to say that the days to come are going to be tense for an Emmanuel Macron and an Elisabeth Borne who will have to, unlike the entre- two rounds of April, campaigning… on the right this time, the main reservoir of votes in favor of the presidential camp, when he was on the left before April 24.
Did Emmanuel Macron’s candidates come out on top in the first round of the legislative elections? The debate has been raging since the announcement of the final results, Sunday June 12, 2022. According to the Ministry of the Interior, the Together coalition (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) won the 1st round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 12, with 25.75% of the votes cast, i.e. 5,857,561 votes cast.
However, advantage is given to the Nupes according to the data of the World (26.11% against 25.88%). A difference in voice which is explained by a labeling of the candidates different operated by the newspaper compared to that carried out by the administration. Be that as it may, the two political currents are neck and neck. Never had a post-presidential legislative election been so close. And never had a president seen his side be in second position. Anyway, the candidates supporting Emmanuel Macron’s presidential project will be present in 417 constituencies in the 2nd round.
While polling institutes had predicted a neck and neck match between Ensemble and Nupes, the results of the 1st round did not contradict the figures put forward. As for the 2nd round, the projections in number of seats obtained by Emmanuel Macron’s camp are not flattering for the President of the Republic. The latter is indeed uncertain of obtaining a majority of deputies in the National Assembly, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey which only credits the Macronists with 255 to 295 seats, knowing that the majority at the Bourbon Palace is 289 seats. Together will he manage to afford an absolute majority?
Did La République en Marche really become “Renaissance”?
In recent days, the news of the change of identity of La République en Marche has circulated a lot. After being called En Marche when it was founded six years ago, then LREM once Emmanuel Macron in power, the political formation had to change its name to be called “Renaissance”. The announcement was made by Stanislas Guerini, Thursday, May 5, 2022, during a press conference at party headquarters. “It is indeed a change in nature and name that we are initiating. It is a refoundation of LREM to build a presidential party which will be called Renaissance”, he explained. Exit LREM, make way for Renaissance? Not quite.
This modification is not definitive. Above all, the announcement could be premature. This is what explains Playbook, citing an inside party source. The majority would be visibly “surprised” to have learned of this announcement of the name change of the main party in the ruling coalition. This same term “Renaissance”, already used as the name for the LREM list in the 2019 European elections, should in fact be used for a “refoundation process” to merge LREM into a larger whole. This union which “will absorb the small parties”, according to the source of Playbook, should also include “Agir” and “Territories of progress”, small formations on the same political line as LREM. A hypothesis that Stanislas Guérini seemed to confirm during his visit to RTL on May 6: “We have decided to launch the creation of a new political party, which will be called Renaissance, it is not done yet, but which will bring together (…) political parties, this is the proposal that we we are going to do to our partners, I am thinking of Agir, of Territories of progress (…)”. All with the aim of “creating a broader political party”, he explained. The transition from LREM to Renaissance is therefore not for now.