RN. The RN, which intended to become the 1st opposition force against Ensemble!, saw its ambition thwarted by the results of the 1st round. However, the composition of a group is always possible for the extreme right.
Look for a legislative result near you
[Mis à jour le 15 juin 2022 à 11h03] The National Rally will have gone through this electoral period not without turbulence. Relegated to second place in the presidential election with 41.45% of the votes collected, more than 17 points less than the score obtained by Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen’s party once again suffered the “blocking vote” of voters who repelled the far right. Rebelotte with the first round of the legislative elections where the party was left behind by its opponents, collecting less than 19% of the votes when Together and Nupès exceed 25.5%. But then, what does Jordan Bardella mean when he calls the RN the “only political movement that is progressing compared to 2017” and “the big winner of the legislative elections”? guest ofEuropean 1 June 15 in the morning, the president of the RN assured: “There is no longer any territory which is opaque to the progress of the RN. We are, compared to 2017, the only political movement which is progressing compared to 2017”. In fact, with 11,300 municipalities won out of the 35,000 that make up the 577 French constituencies, the party is making clear progress, with its national score up by more than five points compared to 13.20% in 2017. announcement of the results last Sunday, Marine Le Pen had also called on her voters to “confirm and increase their vote” to “send a very large group of patriotic deputies to the new National Assembly” (comments reported by RTL). But at a time when a Republican front is once again rising against far-right candidates, can the RN believe in the creation of a parliamentary group at the Palais Bourbon?
The party of Marine Le Pen, herself qualified for the second round with a large lead in Pas-de-Calais, could have fifteen or twenty elected members of the Assembly. With its result in the first round, the RN qualified its candidates for the second round in 208 constituencies, most often in duels against the presidential majority, Together! (107 duels), or the coalition of the left, the Nupes (59 duels). What to have hope to form a group of at least 15 deputies in the National Assembly. The projections on the number of seats allocated to each political force, even low, judge the scenario possible. The latest poll from the interactive Harris Institute for Challenges published on May 14 provides for 23 to 45 RN deputies, enough to form a group in the hemicycle, which would be better than the 8 deputies sent to the Assembly in 2017. ‘Ifop-Fiducial, which delivered projections on the evening of the first round, also painted the picture of a relative presidential majority, narrow between the other forces of the Assembly, including the RN, which could, according to this estimate, aspire to a group of 15 to 30 deputies.
200 duels for the RN and a Republican front
Since June 13, the National Rally has therefore returned to the campaign, led by Marine Le Pen who is competing herself in her stronghold of Hénin-Beaumont. On paper, the goal is simple: convince voters to vote for the extreme right. But in practice, the task will be more difficult. In 107 metropolitan constituencies, the candidates of the RN find themselves facing those of the presidential majority, thus replaying the second round of the presidential election. In this case, the chances of a local republican front blocking the RN exist and are significant. Especially since the figures of Nupes gave an unfavorable vote instruction to the far right, like the deputy of Seine-Saint-Denis, Alexis Corbière, who hammered on Public Senate May 15: “We are not changing our attitude to that, we have always said ‘not a voice for the National Rally'”.
The far right is also face to face with Nupes in 59 duels in the second round of the legislative elections. But difficult to convince the voters of the presidential majority, especially if Together! is still undecided or imprecise as to the voting instructions for Nupes, it has already been said several times, by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne as well as by the government spokesperson, Olivia Grégoire, and that of La République en Marche , Maud Bregeon, that “not a voice” should go “to the National Rally”.
The other configuration for which the RN must prepare is the duel against the Republicans, a battle which awaits them in 25 constituencies. A choice between the right and the extreme right for which the presidential majority renews its appeal to voters not to vote for the party of Marine Le Pen. Especially since with the proximity between certain proposals of LREM and those of the right, the postponement of the votes of the majority could be favorable to LR.
To counter this semblance of a republican front which stands before it in the second round of the legislative elections, the National Rally can only count on its campaign, but this was not a strong point before the first round. It is therefore becoming urgent for the extreme right to get involved and above all to affirm its ambitions if it wishes at least to form an opposition group in the Assembly.
What result for the National Rally in the 2022 legislative elections?
Without having set a precise objective, the Rassemblement hopes to have as many deputies as possible in the National Assembly and to give an order of magnitude of what the party can expect, at best, after the legislative elections, Marine Le Pen indicated on June 8 in Perpignan, referring to the results of the presidential election: “We were in the lead in 150 constituencies, so we can have 150 deputies”. After the first round, this scenario is only a distant memory but the RN can still form a parliamentary group, which was its first ambition. With its score of 18.68% behind Together! (25.75%) and Nupes (25.66%), the RN managed to qualify 208 of its candidates in the second round. But no candidate was elected from the start, not even Marine Le Pen, the leader who seemed promised a victory in the 11th district of Pas-de-Calais. The leader of the movement came out on top with a large lead over Nupes and Ensemble! (53.6%) but the record abstention of 52.49% got the better of her election: Marine Le Pen did not have enough votes out of the total number of registered voters.
What results in the polls for the National Rally in the legislative elections?
Before the first round the forecasts had been right regarding the result of the RN in the first round of the elections by announcing a score below 20% and with 5 to 8 points behind the leading duo. Predictions on the number of seats allocated have already started for the second round this Sunday, June 19. According to the latest Ipsos-Sopra Steria projections made on the results of the first round, the RN would be able to win between 20 and 45 seats in the National Assembly, the minimum required to form a group being the election of 15 deputies. , Marine Le Pen and her party still have one shot to play. Only, they can now draw a line under the ambition to become the first opposition to Emmanuel Macron, the coalition of the left has seized this place.
What is the program of the National Rally?
The National Rally claims to be the “sole opposition” to Emmanuel Macron, but in its campaign the party is fighting both against the presidential majority made up of “predators from above” which, in the words of Jordan Bardella in a statement wants to make France “a trading room” and the coalition of the left made up of “predators from below” who want to “make it a giant squat” according to the president of the RN. The RN defends a program consequently, similar to that defended during the presidential campaign by Marine Le Pen, with the themes of purchasing power, immigration and retirement as priorities.
On the purchasing power, the first concern of voters, the RN promises to “increase purchasing power and lower taxes”. The much defended proposal on the total abolition of VAT on a basket of one hundred basic necessities and the reduction of VAT from 20 to 5.5% on fuel and energy are again put forward. The far right also promises to exempt people under 30 from taxes, especially those who start their own business, to set up a zero-interest loan for young French families and to reindex retirement pensions on inflation. . About retreatsthe RN recalls defending a progressive system guaranteeing retirement at 60 for people who entered working life early and at 62 for those who started working after 25 years.
Much of the RN program is about theimmigration and in this regard the party wishes to “stop mass immigration and restore order” but the subject of immigration is also present in other measures concerning employment. The RN wants to establish the “national priority” to “fix the access of foreigners to any public or private job” and “remove the residence permit” for foreigners “who have not worked for a year in France”. Security is also linked to the question of immigration on certain points of the program of the RN which proposes to expel foreigners convicted of crimes or misdemeanors. More generally side securitythe party suggests the establishment of a presumption of self-defense for the police, to restore minimum sentences and to open additional prison places.
Other measures highlighted in the RN program include an investment in the hospital sector in particular to increase the salaries of caregivers and open 10,000 places in nursing homes, but also the creation of 100,000 housing units for students and the increase in teachers’ salaries by 20% per year for 5 years. L’ecology is the great absence of the RN program, on this subject the party simply explains that it wants to abolish the subsidies granted to wind or solar power and to develop hydroelectricity, photovoltaics, geothermal energy in parallel with the construction of fourteen EPR power stations.
Who are the National Rally candidates for the legislative elections?
Marine Le Pen was one of the first to formalize her candidacy for the legislative elections through the voice of her right arm, Jordan Bardella, on April 28 from Fréjus. She confirmed in early May to stand for re-election in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. At the same time, the interim president of the flame party praised the ranks provided by the RN with candidates invested in 567 out of 577 constituencies. Of the six RN deputies present in the Assembly, only four are standing: Marine Le Pen and Bruno Bilde in the Pas-de-Calais, Sébastien Chenu in the North and Nicolas Meizonnet in the Gard. All the other candidates will form the “new generation” of the RN as wanted by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen.