The leftist unity movement “NUPES” left its mark on the general elections held in the first round in France. The Ecological and Social New People’s Movement (NUPES), in which the radical left, Greens and Socialists allied, won 26.1 percent of the votes in the first round. The “Ensemble/Together” movement, which represents the ruling party and the parties that support it, ranked second with 25.8 percent of the vote.
In France, 48.7 million voters went to the polls to determine the 577 deputies to serve in the National Assembly. While the ruling party faced the risk of not obtaining a majority in the Parliament in the first round, Macron became the first president to fail to secure a majority after being elected.
Eyes turned to whether the government will exceed the absolute majority of 289 in the second round to be held on June 19th. If an absolute majority cannot be reached, French politics will enter a complex period in which new government negotiations or coalition formulas are also on the agenda.
In the elections, which reflect the picture of the fragmented French politics, the alliance of the Populist left party France Indomitable (LFI), the Greens (Les Verts), the French Communist Party (PCF) and the Socialist Party (PS); The ruling liberal central movement March to the Republic (LREM) and the alliance of the MODEM, Agir and Horizon parties that supported it, “Ensemble”, achieved extremely close results.
The far-right party National Integration Movement (RN), which gets stronger in each election, also showed that it is the third political power of the country with 19 percent of the votes.
According to French law, in order to be elected in the first round, the turnout must exceed 25 percent and the vote rate of the candidates must exceed 50 percent. In the first round, only 5 deputies were elected by exceeding the 50 percent threshold.
564 of the unelected candidates will “duel” in the second round to be held on 19 May. The remaining eight candidates will also strive to win in the triple race.
Three female candidates from the NUPES list, Daniele Obono, Sarah Legrain, and Sophia Chikirou, and party leader Alexis Corbiere were elected in the first round.
Marine Le Pen, a candidate for parliament from Hennin-Beaumont, won 55 percent of the vote, but will re-enter the second round because the voters who went to the polls were below 25 percent.
The hardest loser in the elections was the journalist, writer and far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, who entered politics with his anti-immigrant and anti-Islamic rhetoric. Defeated in the Presidential elections held in May, Zemmour was defeated in the parliamentary elections by being eliminated in the first round.
Election fraud controversy
As in every election, the Ministry of Interior, which announced the official results the next morning, started a “election fraud” debate in the country when it reported figures that changed the winner of the elections.
According to ministry figures, the Ensemble movement came first with 25.75 percent of the vote and 20,000 votes; NUPES, on the other hand, took the second place with 25.66 percent of the vote. The voting rates of the other parties did not change.
Although some newspapers and televisions took these figures as a basis, the country’s respected mainstream media outlets did not change the figures. The country’s largest newspaper, Le Monde, announced that, according to its own counts, NUPES ranked first with 26.2 percent and that it would not rely on ministry figures.
NUPES leader Jean Luc Melenchon accused the government and the Minister of Interior for not counting the votes of the overseas provinces and the candidates it supports from outside, and “showing the ruling party in the first place by cheating”.
Left movement NUPES called the Council of State to work and asked the Ministry of Interior to examine the figures it had changed.
The elections entered the newspapers with the comments of “success of the left” or “failure of power”. The left-leaning Humanite newspaper, with the headline “The First Victory of the Left”, wrote that NUPES took the first place with 26 percent of the vote and competed elbow to elbow with the ruling party.
With the headline “Macron towards a narrow majority”, Le Figaro newspaper wrote, “There is no guarantee that Macron, who gets a lower vote rate than the Presidential score, will get a majority in the Parliament”. While the business newspaper Les Echos ran the headline “The power has weakened”, the left-leaning Liberation highlighted the successful election strategy of NUPES with the headline “Left: Strong comeback”.
Majority or coalitions?
Macron became “the first president whose party failed to secure an absolute majority in the first round” after the presidential elections held a month and a half ago. In the first round, 66 deputies supported by the government were eliminated. According to the estimated results determined by the survey companies based on the election results, turnout will be low in the second round as well.
According to the estimates of the Ipsos-Sopra Steria research company, which indicates that the great uncertainty that will occur in the National Assembly continues, the ruling party, which receives 25 percent of the votes, will be able to get between 255 and 295 deputies.
This is the most pessimistic forecast for power. OpinionWay estimates between 260 and 300 MPs, while companies Elabe and Ifop estimate between 270 and 310 MPs. In all estimates, the bottom number lags behind the absolute majority.
However, the party that is most likely to receive the most deputies from other parties is the ruling party; Thus, although it cannot guarantee an absolute majority, it has a chance to close the gap.
Ipsos Director General Mathieu Galard stated that they expect the most votes from other parties to come to power, and that the left unity movement and the far right movement have reached the highest level they can reach. “Absolute majority does not seem to be guaranteed. The most likely scenario is below 289, but the Ensemble is the party with the most MPs. There is still a chance to get an absolute majority, but it is weak, it may be possible with one or two more seats than 289,” Galard said.
According to the Elabe company, NUPES will be able to get 220 MPs in the most optimistic picture. According to Ipsos-Sopra Steria, the far-right party RN will be able to elect between 50 and 80 deputies, and the centre-right LR between 33 and 53.
What will Macron do?
The ruling party, following the strategy of “neither radical left nor far right”, rolled up its sleeves to get centre-right votes on the first day. However, when there was a harsh reaction from the left parties to the government, which put themselves on the same level with the extreme right, in the following hours, the spokespersons of the government returned to the strategy of “no single vote for the extreme right”.
The electoral system in France, which is based on the “easy hand” of the president and “the easy obtaining of the parliamentary majority”, is accepted as the “nature of the Fifth Republic system” and therefore parliamentary elections are viewed as a “formality”. However, for the first time in the history of the 5th Republic, which has existed since 1958, a ruling party cannot guarantee an absolute majority in the first round.
If Macron manages to win a majority in the second round, he will have the chance to lead the country, albeit with difficulty, in a parliament where the radical left and the far right are stronger. However, the dependency of the ruling LREM on the Horizon, MODEM and Agir movements that support it from outside will also increase.
On the other hand, if it does not get a majority, the centre-right LR will become the key party that sets the rules in the Assembly. LR also supports the reform that Macron attaches the most importance to, which raises the retirement age to 65. This puts the scenario of Macron negotiating with LR as the strongest scenario in the first place.
Pointing to a period in which Macron would seek the support of the left for social reforms and the support of the right for liberal reforms without going to an alliance, political observers said that he had options such as passing reforms or establishing a “cohabitation/coalition government”, with legislative decrees that created an earthquake in politics every time they were used before. also states. However, if a consensus cannot be reached, scenarios such as holding early elections as a last resort and suspending the parliament by using constitutional powers may come to the fore.
Jean Luc Melenchon, who managed to establish unity on the left with the slogan “Make me Prime Minister” and to come first in the elections, still repeats his proposal for a “cohabitation/kaolition” government, claiming that “they will get the majority” in the second round. However, Macron is resisting Melenchon’s proposal for now, saying “The Prime Minister elects the president”.
If Macron fails to get an absolute majority in the National Assembly in the second round, French politics and power; From the suspension of the parliament to the decision of early elections, it is waiting for a difficult 5 years with different possibilities.