TOGETHER. Emmanuel Macron’s coalition and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Nupes obtained very close scores during this first round of the legislative elections. Estimates give the Nupes in front, while partial results give Together in front.
Look for a legislative result near you
Together and Nupes are the two winners of this first round. At the national level, the two coalitions end this election night with very similar results. According to the latest estimates made by Elabe for BFM TV and L’Express, Nupes would have won 26.2% of the votes cast at the national level, ahead of Ensemble (LREM and allies), given at 25.9%. The RN is placed in third position (18.8%).
This being said, the projections on the number of seats which could be obtained by such and such a party give estimates rather in favor of Ensemble than of Nupes. According to estimates made by Ifop-Fiducial for TF1-LCI, the projections give between 275 and 310 seats to the Together coalition. Emmanuel Macron’s allies are therefore not certain of gathering a majority since they need at least 289 seats for that. The Nupes would get between 175 and 205 seats, not enough to constitute a majority, but a good opposition force all the same.
The results of the previous legislative elections had allowed Emmanuel Macron to govern with an absolute majority, since 350 seats out of 577 had been allocated, in 2017, to the parties La République en Marche and the MoDem. The Les Républicains party then became the leading opposition party, with 112 seats. The Socialist Party recorded a very severe defeat, with the election of only 30 parliamentarians at the Bourbon Palace. La France insoumise had managed to constitute a parliamentary group, with 17 elected members, the National Rally had brought 8 elected members into the National Assembly.
As for the ministers who submitted to the legislative ballot, no false note since the 15 who presented themselves pass in the second round. Elisabeth Borne, just like Gabriel Attal, Gérald Darmanin or Damien Abad qualified in the second round, each in head in his constituency. Amélie de Montchalin is in a little more difficulty since she collected in the 6th district of Essonne only 30.4% of the votes, far behind the candidate of Nupes with 40.4% of the votes ( according to Ipsos Sopra/Steria estimates for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24-RFI-MCD and LCP-National Assembly Jean-Michel Blanquer, the former Minister of National Education, who was not reappointed at the end of the cabinet reshuffle, will not be in the second round.
A controversial campaign for Together
The campaign did not quite go as planned for Emmanuel Macron, who seems to fear the result of these legislative elections this Sunday evening. At the end of the presidential election, the newly re-elected President of the Republic brought together the various parties wishing to work together for the next five-year term within a coalition named… Together!. Thus, LREM, Horizons, Agir and the MoDem have come together under the same banner. But the various cases that marked the start of this new mandate, that of Damien Abad, Minister of Solidarity at the head, did not help to launch the campaign. Worse still, the alliance of the various left-wing parties (PS, EELV, LFI, PCF) within the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) has borne fruit and has risen in the polls day after day. To the point of truly shaking up the coalition for the presidential majority, which then multiplied the attacks against what now looks like its main opponent.
In the last days of the campaign, Emmanuel Macron and his Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne multiplied the outings in the media to denounce the Nupes project. On France 3, Wednesday June 8, 2022, the head of government said that the union of the left “would impoverish [le] countries, the French women and the French” if it obtained the majority. Many duels could oppose the Together candidates and those of Nupes in the second round of the legislative elections, like the ten face to face in the foreign constituencies ( out of eleven possible).Emmanuel Macron and his relatives should therefore continue to attack Nupes and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the between-two rounds and call on right-wing voters to block the united left…
If the French are not officially called to the polls until this Sunday, June 12, 2022 for the first round of the legislative elections, the result of Emmanuel Macron and the coalition which intends to support him in the National Assembly will be at the center of attention. Because while he seemed in a position of strength, the President of the Republic is jostled by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Nupes. And the results of the first round in the constituencies of French people living outside France confirmed the trend. Because if Together qualified in the 11 territories for the second round, the coalition is, almost everywhere, closely followed by Nupes.
What result in the polls for Emmanuel Macron and Together before the legislative elections?
For the legislative elections, far fewer polls than during the presidential election are carried out by the various institutes. However, surveys on voting intentions are carried out and make it possible to obtain a snapshot, at the moment T, of what the next National Assembly could look like. According to the latest results of the studies carried out, “Together” would win between 28% of the votes cast in the first round. A score which would be noticeably close to that of the NUPES, a margin of error of approximately 2 points being to be taken into account. On the other hand, according to the projections, it is LREM and its allies who would obtain the majority of the seats in the Bourbon palace. But as seen above, an absolute majority is far from guaranteed, since 289 seats are needed to be in the majority. According to the latest figures, Together would win between 275 and 315 places in the hemicycle. Currently, the presidential majority represents 350 seats.
As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has forged an alliance in order to obtain the majority in the legislative elections. However, the content of the coalition set up in 2022 is very different from that of five years ago. By a simple agreement with the MoDem of François Bayrou, the President of the Republic moved to a confederation bringing together six political parties in addition to the party he founded in 2016. United under the banner “Together”, LREM, the MoDem , Agir (Franck Riester), Horizons (Edouard Philippe), Territory of Progress (Olivier Dussopt), In Common (Barbara Pompili’s party chaired by Philippe Hardouin) and the Radical Party (Laurent Hénart) have sealed a support pact for Emmanuel Macron , conducting negotiations for the distribution of constituencies. Thus, according to the agreement reached, 400 nominations were reserved for LREM, between 101 and 110 for the MoDem, as well as 58 for Horizons, the other formations each winning less than 10 constituencies.
A coalition which is however not without risk, worries one in Macronie. In particular vis-à-vis Edouard Philippe. If the former Prime Minister has always shown his loyalty to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathy side (favorite political personality of the French), grant him the status of both ally and dissident of weight. in case of disagreement. Because if Emmanuel Macron does not obtain the majority (289 seats) with the only LREM candidates and it is the deputies stamped Horizons who allow him, the political force of his ex-tenant of Matignon will only be increased tenfold, him who can then brandish the threat of not voting in favor of a text emanating from the government or the parliamentary majority. In 2017, LREM had won 314 seats, ending however with 268 deputies after several splits and, therefore, without an absolute majority on its own.
Did La République en Marche really become “Renaissance”?
In recent days, the news of the change of identity of La République en Marche has circulated a lot. After being called En Marche when it was founded six years ago, then LREM once Emmanuel Macron was in power, the political formation had to change its name to be called “Renaissance”. The announcement was made by Stanislas Guerini, Thursday, May 5, 2022, during a press conference at party headquarters. “It is indeed a change in nature and name that we are initiating. It is a refoundation of LREM to build a presidential party which will be called Renaissance”, he explained. Exit LREM, make way for Renaissance? Not quite.
This modification is not definitive. Above all, the announcement could be premature. This is what explains Playbook, citing an inside party source. The majority would be visibly “surprised” to have learned of this announcement of the name change of the main party in the ruling coalition. This same term “Renaissance”, already used as the name for the LREM list in the 2019 European elections, should in reality be used for a “refounding process” to merge LREM into a larger whole. This union which “will absorb the small parties”, according to the source of Playbook, should also include “Agir” and “Territories of progress”, small formations on the same political line as LREM. A hypothesis that Stanislas Guérini seemed to confirm during his visit to RTL on May 6: “We have decided to launch the creation of a new political party, which will be called Renaissance, it is not done yet, but which will bring together (…) political parties, this is the proposal that we we are going to do to our partners, I am thinking of Agir, of Territories of progress (…)”. All with the aim of “creating a broader political party”, he explained. The transition from LREM to Renaissance is therefore not for now.